How Accurate Are NFL Experts' Predictions? The Numbers

Every checkable prediction named NFL pundits make — games, win totals, awards, mock drafts and more — graded against what actually happened, with a naive guess scored on the same question beside it. Figures as of 2026-10-06; they move as the season resolves.

Graded predictions: 11,174
Pundits on the record: 843
Average accuracy: 62.0
Hits: 53%

How accurate are NFL experts' predictions?

Across 11,174 graded NFL predictions, the average call scored 62.0 out of 100. 53% were hits (80 or better) and 32% were misses (under 40).

Do NFL experts beat a naive guess?

The naive guess is what a reader could have assumed without the pundit — the favorite wins, last season repeats. A call has to beat it to have told anyone anything.

The average graded call scored 17.7 points above what a naive guess on the same question would have. Of the 51 pundits with ten or more graded articles, 40 (78%) beat the naive guess over their whole record.

Which NFL predictions are hardest to get right?

Kinds of call with at least fifty graded predictions, easiest first.

Pro Bowl and All-Pro Calls calls are the hardest we grade, averaging 0.0 out of 100 across 65 graded calls; Roster Spot Calls calls are the easiest, at 89.6.

Roster Spot Calls1,604 graded · naive guess 7989.6
Depth Chart Calls491 graded · naive guess 8288.2
Position Order Calls184 graded · naive guess 2378.1
Power Rankings148 graded · naive guess 5466.1
Fantasy Rankings51 graded · naive guess 5066.1
Mock Draft Picks2,919 graded · naive guess 5066.0
Score Predictions795 graded · naive guess 5660.7
Playoff Picks486 graded · naive guess 5159.5
Game Outcome Picks1,969 graded · naive guess 5758.0
Top Player Lists74 graded · naive guess 5056.9
Trade and Signing Calls194 graded · naive guess 2653.6
Sleeper Calls178 graded · naive guess 4752.8
Season Win Totals284 graded · naive guess 4549.1
Seeding, Byes and Home Field51 graded · naive guess 2239.2
Player Season Numbers140 graded · naive guess 3535.9
Positional Finishes271 graded · naive guess 2835.1
Super Bowl Picks137 graded · naive guess 934.3
Division Winners351 graded · naive guess 1627.4
Conference Champions187 graded · naive guess 1925.1
Award Picks354 graded · naive guess 021.2
Coach Award Picks66 graded · naive guess 018.2
Pro Bowl and All-Pro Calls65 graded · naive guess 780.0

How accurate are NFL mock drafts?

By the round the player was mocked in. Accuracy halves for every sixteen picks out; the mock draft page has every pick.

A first-round mock-draft pick missed where the player actually went by 10.2 picks on average, across 1,676 graded first-round picks; mocked in late day 3 (176+), the average miss grows to 49.6 picks.

Mocked in	Graded picks	Average miss (picks)	Accuracy
Round 1 (picks 1–32)	1,676	10.2	76.3
Round 2 (33–64)	112	24.9	49.5
Round 3 (65–100)	94	33.4	38.7
Day 3 (101–175)	158	41.5	32.7
Late Day 3 (176+)	93	49.6	26.9

Who is the most accurate NFL analyst?

Ranked by MissedTakes Score — how much better than the naive guess, not how often right. Only records with ten or more graded articles are ranked; the full ranking is on the leaderboard.

Pundit	Score	Accuracy	Graded
1. Lance Zierlein	+51.1	67.5	44
2. Bryan DeArdo	+48.4	71.7	16
3. Bill Huber	+47.8	81.8	61
4. Joe Marino	+46.2	77.6	170
5. Tom Pelissero	+44.9	82.4	34
6. Pat Fitzmaurice	+44.7	61.1	160
7. Derek Brown	+39.7	65.7	105
8. Peter Schrager	+36.4	69.3	50
9. Bucky Brooks	+32.8	76.5	118
10. Rich Hribar	+32.7	68.8	64

Cite these numbers

Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with credit and a link to this page. Please give the date — these figures move as the season resolves and as the methodology is amended.

MissedTakes, "How Accurate Are NFL Experts' Predictions? The Numbers", missedtakes.co/nfl/accuracy, accessed 2026-10-06.

The tables as CSV or markdown. How each call is graded is in the methodology.