We log public calls, wait for the answer and grade each one. What is MissedTakes? ↓
Politics desk · Who Called 2026
Winner calls grade as races are called and confirmed; margins and seat counts as states certify. Each pundit’s election record updates with every one.
The most-made calls on 2026
Logan Phillips · Race Winners
Sports desk · this week
A scorekeeper for public predictions. Here is one real call, start to finish.
Someone Says It
“I think that Trump will win because I think that the country will not elect a woman.”
A.B. Stoddard, RealClearPolitics Podcast, Oct 24, 2024
We Log the Call
Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners
Linked to where it was said, so anyone can check the wording.
The Answer Arrives
Donald Trump won.
From the certified results.
We Grade It
100out of 100
The naive guess: the Democrats, who held the White House, keep it.
That gap is the idea. The MissedTakes Score measures how much better than a naive guess a pundit does, call after call, on one desk. See this take →
Being wrong is part of the job. We show the math, link the source and grade the call.
Picking the favorite every time scores near zero, however often it’s right.
A football record and an election record are never averaged into each other.
A record is ranked after ten graded articles. Until then it is provisional, and we say so.
Same method, separate records. Each desk’s numbers are its own.
Sports desk
69 of 87 settled records beat a naive guess
One dot per pundit with ten or more graded articles. Filled: better than a naive guess.
Leading settled records
Politics desk
21 of 21 settled records beat a naive guess
One dot per pundit with ten or more graded articles. Filled: better than a naive guess.
Leading settled records
Leading records are ordered as on the leaderboards: score, weighted for how much evidence is behind it.
Not on a roadmap. A desk opens when it passes three tests, and every desk so far has.
| The test | NFL | US Elections |
|---|---|---|
| The predictions are public: named people, on the record, with a link | 72 publishers | 40 publishers |
| The answers land on a public record | League results | Race calls, then certified results |
| The grading rule is in our methodology before the first grade | The original rules | Amendment 14, Oct 2, 2026, the day before the desk opened |
Our methodology has grown by 28 dated amendments, each one public. A new desk would start as one more. Know a beat where public predictions meet public answers?
Suggest the next beat →