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Writes at The Dispatch Podcast
Across 5 graded calls in 1 article, Chris Stirewalt scores 100% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 0, which means their calls were no better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.
100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
They hedged 30% of their claims — a “probably”, a “could”, a “wouldn’t be surprised”.
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.
“I would say that Hochul is, Hochul is favored. I I would give her the edge, but not by much, and it wouldn't take much of a good Republican climate, to put Zelda in.”
“do stuff either in races that are that are lost, like Florida. Right? You know, Val Deming is gonna lose.”
“I think Tudor Dixon has a chance. I would favor Whitmer, certainly, but I think she's got a chance”
“Charlie Crist is gonna set a record. I believe he is the only person to have lost statewide office under three different, party banners as a democrat, a republican, and an independent.”
“Josh Shapiro is, riding high in Pennsylvania and seems like he is bound, to keep the Governor's Mansion there blue.”