Chris Stirewalt· Nov 7, 2022

Stirewalt called Pennsylvania's Senate race a pure toss-up but said Josh Shapiro was bound to keep the Pennsylvania governorship for Democrats, gave Kathy Hochul a narrow edge in New York, favored Gretchen Whitmer over Tudor Dixon in Michigan, and said Florida Democrats Val Demings and Charlie Crist were headed for defeat.

“So Josh Shapiro is riding high in Pennsylvania and seems like he is bound to keep the Governor's Mansion there blue.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Megyn Kelly Show · read the original →

5 checkable claims — 5 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 5 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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5 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“I would say that Hochul is, Hochul is favored. I I would give her the edge, but not by much, and it wouldn't take much of a good Republican climate, to put Zelda in.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-ny
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Hochul is favored. I I would give her the edge, but not by much
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Kathy Hochul
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 New York gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kathy Hochul
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“do stuff either in races that are that are lost, like Florida. Right? You know, Val Deming is gonna lose.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-fl
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Marco Rubio
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Florida
decided in the:
general
they said:
Marco Rubio
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“I think Tudor Dixon has a chance. I would favor Whitmer, certainly, but I think she's got a chance”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-mi
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
I would favor Whitmer, certainly
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Gretchen Whitmer
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Michigan gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Gretchen Whitmer
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Charlie Crist is gonna set a record. I believe he is the only person to have lost statewide office under three different, party banners as a democrat, a republican, and an independent.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-fl
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Ron DeSantis
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Florida gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ron DeSantis
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Josh Shapiro is, riding high in Pennsylvania and seems like he is bound, to keep the Governor's Mansion there blue.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-pa
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Josh Shapiro
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Josh Shapiro
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.