Jon Ralston

Writes at Princeton Election Consortium (Sam Wang)

Is Jon Ralston accurate?

Across 2 graded calls in 1 article, Jon Ralston scores 100% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 50, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.

How accurate are election pundits overall? →

100%

Accuracy

How often they were right.

50

MissedTakes Score

Versus a naive guess. 0 means no better.

2

Graded calls

across 1 article.

Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.

Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.

Graded calls · 2

Ralston, cited by Wang based on his early and mail vote analysis, expects Nevada's governor's race to go narrowly Republican while the Senate seat stays Democratic.2 graded calls · Nov 8, 2022
- “According to Jon Ralston... it looks like the governor’s race may go narrowly Republican, and the Senate race may stay Democratic.”
  Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
  How this was scored
  right:
  yes
  race:
  2022-governor-nv
  election year:
  2022
  skill:
  100
  topic:
  elections
  held going in by:
  Democratic
  in their words:
  may go narrowly Republican
  result from:
  wikipedia-2022-governor
  who won:
  Joe Lombardo
  accuracy:

100

baseline:

0

race name:

2022 Nevada gubernatorial election

decided in the:

general

they said:

Joe Lombardo

days before the vote when called:

0

difficulty:

1

the winner's party:

Republican

the naive guess:

the party holding the seat keeps it

Election Day:

2022-11-08

the result is:

certified

the party they named:

Republican

Think this grade is wrong?

“the Senate race may stay Democratic”

Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill

How this was scored

right:: yes
race:: 2022-senate-nv
election year:: 2022
skill:: 0
topic:: elections
held going in by:: Democratic
in their words:: may stay Democratic
result from:: fec-2022
who won:: Catherine Cortez Masto
accuracy:: 100
baseline:: 100
race name:: 2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada
decided in the:: general
they said:: Catherine Cortez Masto
days before the vote when called:: 0
difficulty:: 1
the winner's party:: Democratic
the naive guess:: the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:: 2022-11-08
the result is:: certified
the party they named:: Democratic

Think this grade is wrong?