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Writes at Honestly with Bari Weiss
Across 5 graded calls in 1 article, Josh Kraushaar scores 20.83% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of -40.4, which means their calls were worse than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.
100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
They hedged 45.83% of their claims — a “probably”, a “could”, a “wouldn’t be surprised”.
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.
“I'll give Republicans two seats. They'll get the 52. That would be my my prediction.”
“It it is. And I I think it's fair to call her the favorite, at at this point.”
“I think 20 seats in the house is is pretty easy to expect. It could be higher, but 20 is a good round number, and I think Republicans are well within reach of that.”
“I'll give Republicans two seats. They'll get the 52.”
“I I think she's favored to win, if you look at the polls, but she's only up by a a few points.”