Josh Kraushaar· Nov 3, 2022

Kraushaar forecast a likely red wave: a Republican gain of about 20 House seats and a two-seat Senate gain leaving Republicans at 52. He also called Christine Drazan the favorite in Oregon's governor race and said Kari Lake was favored to win Arizona's governorship.

“I'll give Republicans two seats. They'll get the 52.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Honestly with Bari Weiss · read the original →

5 checkable claims — 3 seat counts and 2 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 5 have settled, averaging 25 out of 100, against 63 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Their call against what happened

2They said

-1What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

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5 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Seat CountsNov 3, 2022
“I'll give Republicans two seats. They'll get the 52. That would be my my prediction.”
Close · 40Scored 40a naive guess scored 80-40.4 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
49
skill:
−40.4
topic:
elections
what happened:
−1
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
what they counted:
net seats
accuracy:
40
baseline:
80
they said:
2
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
seats before:
50
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 3, 2022
“It it is. And I I think it's fair to call her the favorite, at at this point.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-101 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-governor-or
election year:
2022
skill:
−101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
fair to call her the favorite
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Tina Kotek
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Oregon gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Christine Drazan
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 3, 2022
“I think 20 seats in the house is is pretty easy to expect. It could be higher, but 20 is a good round number, and I think Republicans are well within reach of that.”
Close · 45Scored 45a naive guess scored 55-10.1 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
222
skill:
−10.1
topic:
elections
what happened:
9
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
what they counted:
net seats
accuracy:
45
baseline:
55
they said:
20
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
seats before:
213
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 3, 2022
“I'll give Republicans two seats. They'll get the 52.”
Close · 40Scored 40a naive guess scored 80-40.4 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
49
skill:
−40.4
topic:
elections
what happened:
49
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
40
baseline:
80
they said:
52
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
seats before:
50
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the naive guess said:
50
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 3, 2022
“I I think she's favored to win, if you look at the polls, but she's only up by a a few points.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-governor-az
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
favored to win
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Katie Hobbs
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 Arizona gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kari Lake
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More seat counts

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.