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Writes at Honestly with Bari Weiss
Across 5 graded calls in 1 article, Mary Katharine Ham scores 44.58% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of -39.56, which means their calls were worse than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.
100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
They hedged 54.17% of their claims — a “probably”, a “could”, a “wouldn’t be surprised”.
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.
“we should rejoice that Kemp will likely be victorious as the vanquisher of election deniers on both sides”
“perhaps it's an indictment of the Vance campaign to some extent that he's not performing better... But in the end, I think he probably comes out on top.”
“But I will stick with my prediction from way back... Herschel Walker, in a red wave year, as a Republican, does not lose in the state of Georgia.”
“Let's go three, even three plus pickups in the senate for, Republicans and 24, 25 house seats.”
“Let's go three, even three plus pickups in the senate for, Republicans and 24, 25 house seats.”