Mary Katharine Ham· Nov 3, 2022

Ham predicted Republicans would gain three or more Senate seats and 24-25 House seats, that Herschel Walker would not lose Georgia's Senate race, that Brian Kemp would win the Georgia governorship, and that JD Vance would prevail in Ohio.

“Herschel Walker, in a red wave year, as a Republican, does not lose in the state of Georgia.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Honestly with Bari Weiss · read the original →

5 checkable claims — 3 race winners and 2 seat counts — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 5 have settled, averaging 49 out of 100, against 87 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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5 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 3, 2022
“we should rejoice that Kemp will likely be victorious as the vanquisher of election deniers on both sides”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-ga
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
will likely be victorious
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Brian Kemp
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Georgia gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Brian Kemp
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 3, 2022
“perhaps it's an indictment of the Vance campaign to some extent that he's not performing better... But in the end, I think he probably comes out on top.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-oh
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
JD Vance
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Ohio
decided in the:
general
they said:
JD Vance
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 3, 2022
“But I will stick with my prediction from way back... Herschel Walker, in a red wave year, as a Republican, does not lose in the state of Georgia.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-101 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-ga
election year:
2022
skill:
−101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Raphael Warnock
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia
decided in the:
runoff
they said:
Herschel Junior Walker
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 3, 2022
“Let's go three, even three plus pickups in the senate for, Republicans and 24, 25 house seats.”
Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 80-60.6 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
49
skill:
−60.6
topic:
elections
what happened:
−1
in their words:
three, even three plus pickups
read as:
as written
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
what they counted:
net seats
accuracy:
20
baseline:
80
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
seats before:
50
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
their range:
3 to 100
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 3, 2022
“Let's go three, even three plus pickups in the senate for, Republicans and 24, 25 house seats.”
Miss · 25Scored 25a naive guess scored 55-30.3 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
222
skill:
−30.3
topic:
elections
what happened:
9
in their words:
24, 25 house seats
read as:
as written
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
what they counted:
net seats
accuracy:
25
baseline:
55
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
seats before:
213
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
their range:
24 to 25
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.