Tom Jensen· Aug 15, 2026
After the 49ers' preseason opener, Jensen argued Jordan Watkins has won the battle for the sixth and final wide receiver roster spot over Malik Turner and Will Pauling, and that Sebastian Valdez holds the edge over James Thompson Jr. in the interior defensive line roster competition.
“If the Niners keep six receivers per usual Watkins is clearly in the lead for 6th man.”
published in writing · Sports Illustrated · read the original →
2 checkable claims — 2 roster spot calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
1 of 2 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
2 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Sebastian Valdez to make the roster
“His DT roster competition Sebastian Valdez had five tackles including a tackle for loss. Advantage Valdez.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Sebastian Valdez
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he makes the 53
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 3
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 3
Jordan Watkins — “6th receiver / final WR roster slot”
“If the Niners keep six receivers per usual Watkins is clearly in the lead for 6th man. Malik Turner had two catches, Will Pauling three, but as of now they both lose the final WR roster slot to Watkins.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Henry ChealRoster Spot Calls · Jordan JamesHit · 100Cheal predicts Jordan James will make the 49ers' 53-man roster but may sit behind rookie Kaelon Black on the running back depth chart.
- Eric CrockerRoster Spot Calls · Kurtis RourkeMiss · 0Crocker would keep only two quarterbacks (Purdy and Jones) and only three running backs plus the fullback, cutting one of James/McCormick. At cornerback he keeps Green, Hobbs, Jack Jones, the rookie, and would keep Deion Jones as the veteran linebacker.
- Big CatGame Outcome Picks · San Francisco 49ersHit · 100Big Cat expected the 49ers to beat the Cardinals easily and the Rams to beat the Broncos, agreed the Seahawks would beat Washington, and said he doesn't think DJ Moore will play.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · San Francisco 49ersHit · 81Simms went through every Week 2 game with predicted final scores, picking the Texans, Bears, Steelers (as an upset), Packers, Ravens, Eagles, Buccaneers, Panthers, Jaguars, Seahawks, Cowboys, 49ers, Chargers, Chiefs and Rams to win. He also reiterated that Denver was his preseason Super Bowl pick while predicting the Broncos would fall to 0-2.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · San Francisco 49ersHit · 88Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Richie BradshawScore Predictions · San Francisco 49ersHit · 83Bradshaw picks the 49ers to beat the Cardinals in their Week 3 matchup, predicting a final score of 27-14 in San Francisco's favor.
More roster spot calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Philip HughesRoster Spot Calls · Caelen CarsonHit · 100A NFC East news roundup relays that cornerback is Dallas' weakest unit, with Caelen Carson holding on as the last man on the 53-man roster and Cobie Durant slotted in as the Cowboys' second cornerback.
- Fox SportsRoster Spot Calls · J.J. McCarthyHit · 100The FOX Sports report states that the Vikings are expected to keep quarterback J.J. McCarthy on their active roster for the season.
- Noah StrackbeinRoster Spot Calls · Daylen EveretteHit · 100With Joey Porter Jr. activated off PUP, Strackbein expects Asante Samuel Jr. to be the Steelers' top backup cornerback — the first depth player used off the bench — and rookie Daylen Everette to round out the cornerback room entering the regular season.
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Kendre MillerHit · 100An unsigned PFF preseason recap makes numerous depth-chart, roster and usage projections across the league, based on Week 3 preseason playing time — including Roman Wilson winning Pittsburgh's third receiver job, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Charlie Kolar as the Chargers' top tight end, and Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2.
- Noah ComptonRoster Spot Calls · Deion BurksMiss · 0After the Colts' preseason finale loss to Detroit, Compton projected several roster and depth-chart outcomes: Daniel Jones as the starting quarterback, rookie A.J. Haulcy as the starting strong safety, Seth McGowan as the backup running back, and rookie defensive ends George Gumbs Jr. and Caden Curry making the initial 53-man roster, while receiver Deion Burks appears likely to be cut.
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Tom KennedyHit · 100PFF's preseason fantasy recap projects Colts roles: Keenan Allen as the starting Z receiver with Josh Downs in the slot, Laquon Treadwell as the backup X, and seventh-round rookie Seth McGowan as the favorite to be Jonathan Taylor's backup ahead of DJ Giddens. On the Lions, Tom Kennedy appears to have locked up a roster spot with Greg Dortch next most likely.