Noah ComptonAug 29, 2026
After the Colts' preseason finale loss to Detroit, Compton projected several roster and depth-chart outcomes: Daniel Jones as the starting quarterback, rookie A.J. Haulcy as the starting strong safety, Seth McGowan as the backup running back, and rookie defensive ends George Gumbs Jr. and Caden Curry making the initial 53-man roster, while receiver Deion Burks appears likely to be cut.
Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original
What Noah Compton said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromThird-round safety A.J. Haulcy has seemingly earned the Colts' opening at strong safety
- Where it was published
- Sports Illustrated
- The piece
- 3 Takeaways From Colts' Preseason Finale Against Lions: Starters Good, Depth Bad
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidAug 29
- GradedSep 25–Oct 1
- 1Deion Burks to be cut“The former is still on the outside looking in ahead of cut day”
- 2Caden Curry to make the roster“Day 3 defensive ends George Gumbs Jr. and Caden Curry have essentially forced their way onto the Colts' initial 53-man roster.”
- 3George Gumbs to make the roster“Day 3 defensive ends George Gumbs Jr. and Caden Curry have essentially forced their way onto the Colts' initial 53-man roster.”
- 4A.J. Haulcy to be 1st on the depth chart“Third-round safety A.J. Haulcy has seemingly earned the Colts' opening at strong safety, because although he didn't participate in the preseason finale against the Lions, it still feels like his job once Week 1 arrives.”
- 5Seth McGowan to be 2nd on the depth chart“the latter has shored up his rookie role as the Colts' backup running back behind Jonathan Taylor”
- 6Daniel Jones to be 1st on the depth chart“The only difference is that Daniel Jones will be the one throwing Allen's way”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deion Burks to be cut1 | Roster Spot Calls | 4 weeks on a 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Caden Curry to make the roster2 | Roster Spot Calls | 3 weeks on a 53 | 100 | 0 | +200 | |
| George Gumbs to make the roster3 | Roster Spot Calls | 3 weeks on a 53 | 100 | 0 | +200 | |
| A.J. Haulcy to be 1st on the depth chart4 | Depth Chart Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Seth McGowan to be 2nd on the depth chart5 | Depth Chart Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Daniel Jones to be 1st on the depth chart6 | Depth Chart Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| 6 calls · 2 hits · 1 miss · 3 waiting | 66.7 | 0 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive6 checkable claims — 3 depth chart calls and 3 roster spot calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
3 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 66.7 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 3 unsettled calls enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room on every one.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Where this call stands in the room
Daniel Jones · 2026 season10 calls from 8 pundits between 1 and 1. Noah Compton said 1. the room's median is 1. not settled yet
Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question. Where the dots land says where this take sits, not whether it is right — nothing here is settled yet. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.
1Roster Spot CallsDeion BurksIndianapolis Colts
Deion Burks to be cut
What happened4 weeks on a 530Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- IND
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Deion Burks
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he does not make the 53
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
2Roster Spot CallsCaden CurryIndianapolis Colts
Caden Curry to make the roster
What happened3 weeks on a 53100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×2difficulty=+200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- IND
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Caden Curry
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he makes the 53
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
3Roster Spot CallsGeorge GumbsIndianapolis Colts
George Gumbs to make the roster
What happened3 weeks on a 53100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×2difficulty=+200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- IND
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- George Gumbs
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he makes the 53
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
4Depth Chart CallsA.J. HaulcyIndianapolis Colts
A.J. Haulcy to be 1st on the depth chart
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
5Depth Chart CallsSeth McGowanIndianapolis Colts
Seth McGowan to be 2nd on the depth chart
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
6Depth Chart CallsDaniel JonesIndianapolis Colts
Daniel Jones to be 1st on the depth chart
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
66.7naive 0
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
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Despite the midseason firing of GM Chris Ballard, Wally expects the Colts to avoid a fire sale, predicting that core stars such as DeForest Buckner, Sauce Gardner, Jonathan Taylor, Grover Stewart and Quenton Nelson will not be shopped before the trade deadline.
More depth chart calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
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In a Week 9 injury roundup, Moore forecast which banged-up fantasy contributors would play or sit: Deshaun Watson, Garrett Wilson, David Montgomery, Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, TreVeyon Henderson and Terrance Ferguson are expected out, while Travis Kelce, Saquon Barkley, Michael Wilson, Christian Watson and Emeka Egbuka should play. They also expect Shedeur Sanders and Drew Lock to start at quarterback.Nic Bodiford · Depth Chart Calls · Joe Fagnano · Hit 100
Previewing Week 9 running game matchups, Bodiford expects Jacksonville to win lopsidedly over a depleted Baltimore team, with Bhayshul Tuten sitting out and Chris Rodriguez taking over as lead back, while Joe Fagnano starts at quarterback for the Ravens. They also view Broncos rookie Jonah Coleman as an RB2 going forward.