Chris Simms#58 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 25, 2026
Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. They also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Chris Simms Unbuttoned (podcast)Hear the original
What Chris Simms said
I'm gonna take Jacksonville to win a close one.
- Where it was said
- Chris Simms Unbuttoned (podcast)
- The episode
- NFL Week 3 Picks; Falcons overrun Lambeau
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidSep 25
- PlayedSep 27
- GradedSep 29
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score Predictions | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | |
| Availability Calls | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| Depth Chart Calls | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| All | 7 | 5 | 1 | 4 |
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
17 checkable claims — 13 score predictions, 3 availability calls and 1 depth chart call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 19 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
13 of 17 have settled so far, averaging 72 out of 100, against 70.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Score Predictions7 hits · 5 close calls · 1 missShow ▸Hide ▾
Kansas City Chiefs 34 — Dolphins 20
“I I'm certainly with you and the Chiefs... I'm gonna go $34.20, Kansas City Chiefs.”
Chiefs 24–10called Chiefs by 14 · won by 14100Hit100 − 18.75 naive = 81.25 × 1.89 difficulty = +153.56 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Chiefs by 10, total 45.5 · this 34–20 calls a bigger Chiefs win (by 14) and more points (54).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 24-10
- skill:
- 153.56
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 18.75
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 14
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 14
Baltimore Ravens 28 — Cowboys 24
“I'm going to take Baltimore 2824... I'm gonna ride them twenty eight twenty four.”
Ravens 34–31called Ravens by 4 · won by 397.62Hit97.62 − 44.94 naive = 52.68 × 1.89 difficulty = +99.56 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Ravens by 3, total 53.5 · this 28–24 calls a bigger Ravens win (by 4) and fewer points (52).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 34-31
- skill:
- 99.56
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 97.62
- baseline:
- 44.94
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 4
New Orleans Saints 26 — Raiders 17
“I'm gonna have the Saints kinda pull away just late. That's kinda how I got it. Like, twenty six seventeen.”
Raiders 35–27called Saints by 9 · lost by 847.62Close47.62 − 33.04 naive = 14.58 × 1.89 difficulty = +27.56 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Saints by 3.5, total 43.5 · this 26–17 calls a bigger Saints win (by 9) and fewer points (43).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 35-27
- skill:
- 27.56
- they picked:
- NO
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 47.62
- baseline:
- 33.04
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 8
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 9
- Vikings 23–16called Vikings by 11 · won by 790.48Hit
90.48 − 35.42 naive = 55.06 × 1.89 difficulty = +104.06 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Vikings by 1.5, total 42.5 · this 28–17 calls a bigger Vikings win (by 11) and more points (45).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 23-16
- skill:
- 104.06
- they picked:
- MIN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 90.48
- baseline:
- 35.42
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 7
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 11
- 49ers 36–30called 49ers by 11 · won by 688.1Hit
88.1 − 87.8 naive = 0.3 × 1.89 difficulty = +0.56 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): 49ers by 7.5, total 48.5 · this 31–20 calls a bigger 49ers win (by 11) and more points (51).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 30-36
- skill:
- 0.56
- they picked:
- SF
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 88.1
- baseline:
- 87.8
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 11
- Broncos 30–26called Broncos by 3 · won by 497.62Hit
97.62 − 92.56 naive = 5.06 × 1.89 difficulty = +9.56 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Broncos by 1.5, total 43.5 · this 24–21 calls a bigger Broncos win (by 3) and more points (45).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 26-30
- skill:
- 9.56
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 97.62
- baseline:
- 92.56
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 3
Jacksonville Jaguars 23 — Patriots 21
“So I'm gonna take Jacksonville to win a close one. They're at home... Jaguars winning twenty three twenty one”
Jaguars 35–6called Jaguars by 2 · won by 2950Close50 − 50 naive = 0 × 1.89 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Jaguars by 3, total 46.5 · this 23–21 calls a closer game (Jaguars by 2) and fewer points (44).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 6-35
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 50
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 29
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 2
Seattle Seahawks 24 — Washington 14
“So, yeah, I I'm Seahawks all the way here, 24 to 14”
Commanders 33–31called Seahawks by 10 · lost by 230.95Miss30.95 − 97.32 naive = −66.37 × 1.89 difficulty = −125.44 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Seahawks by 8.5, total 40.5 · this 24–14 calls a bigger Seahawks win (by 10) and fewer points (38).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 31-33
- skill:
- −125.44
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 30.95
- baseline:
- 97.32
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 10
New York Giants 17 — Titans 13
“I think they win an ugly one here... I'm gonna say seventeen thirteen Giants.”
Giants 12–7called Giants by 4 · won by 597.62Hit97.62 − 90.18 naive = 7.44 × 1.89 difficulty = +14.06 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Giants by 2.5, total 37.5 · this 17–13 calls a bigger Giants win (by 4) and fewer points (30).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 7-12
- skill:
- 14.06
- they picked:
- NYG
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 97.62
- baseline:
- 90.18
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 4
Cincinnati Bengals 27 — Steelers 20
“So I'm definitely taking the Bengals to win this one... Oh, I'm gonna go twenty seven twenty.”
Steelers 30–27called Bengals by 7 · lost by 340.48Close40.48 − 94.94 naive = −54.46 × 1.89 difficulty = −102.94 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Bengals by 3.5, total 42.5 · this 27–20 calls a bigger Bengals win (by 7) and more points (47).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 27-30
- skill:
- −102.94
- they picked:
- CIN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 40.48
- baseline:
- 94.94
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 7
Carolina Panthers 24 — Browns 20
“I'm gonna pick the Panthers. I am there, but I do. I'm going twenty four twenty.”
Browns 21–18called Panthers by 4 · lost by 347.62Close47.62 − 94.94 naive = −47.32 × 1.89 difficulty = −89.44 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Panthers by 2.5, total 41.5 · this 24–20 calls a bigger Panthers win (by 4) and more points (44).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 18-21
- skill:
- −89.44
- they picked:
- CAR
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 47.62
- baseline:
- 94.94
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 4
- Colts 19–17called Texans by 3 · lost by 247.62Close
47.62 − 97.32 naive = −49.7 × 1.89 difficulty = −93.94 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Texans by 1.5, total 41.5 · this 20–17 calls a bigger Texans win (by 3) and fewer points (37).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 17-19
- skill:
- −93.94
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 47.62
- baseline:
- 97.32
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 3
Buffalo Bills 35 — Chargers 27
“So now I'm going to go Buffalo wins by eight... I got Buffalo winning thirty five twenty seven”
Bills 24–16called Bills by 8 · won by 8100Hit100 − 83.04 naive = 16.96 × 1.89 difficulty = +32.06 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Bills by 7, total 50.5 · this 35–27 calls a bigger Bills win (by 8) and more points (62).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 16-24
- skill:
- 32.06
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 83.04
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 8
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 8
Availability Calls3 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
“Because I don't expect Puka to play. (Week 3, Rams at Broncos)”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
“There's a flowers. We're not expecting him to play, right?... but I don't expect to see him. (Week 3, Ravens-Cowboys in Brazil)”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
“Expect Kyler Murray to play, and I think he's gonna show his ass this weekend.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Depth Chart Calls1 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
Marvin Harrison Jr. to be 3rd on the depth chart
“he's never gonna be the superstar. He's gonna be a really good number two, maybe a high end three.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
The games in this take
every pundit’s pick on each- Patriots at JaguarsJaguars 35Patriots 617 calls →
- Seahawks at CommandersCommanders 33Seahawks 3149 calls →
- Bengals at SteelersSteelers 30Bengals 2714 calls →
- Titans at GiantsGiants 12Titans 710 calls →
- Chiefs at DolphinsChiefs 24Dolphins 1016 calls →
- Texans at ColtsColts 19Texans 1711 calls →
- Panthers at BrownsBrowns 21Panthers 188 calls →
- Chargers at BillsBills 24Chargers 1622 calls →
- Vikings at BuccaneersVikings 23Buccaneers 1612 calls →
- Cardinals at 49ers49ers 36Cardinals 3010 calls →
- Raiders at SaintsRaiders 35Saints 2716 calls →
- Ravens at CowboysRavens 34Cowboys 3125 calls →
- Rams at BroncosBroncos 30Rams 2626 calls →
Who this take is about
Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, New Orleans Saints, Minnesota Vikings, San Francisco 49ers, Denver Broncos, Jacksonville Jaguars, Seattle Seahawks, New York Giants, Cincinnati Bengals, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans, Buffalo Bills, Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams, Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals, Zay Flowers, Kyler Murray
Others on the same people
Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman expects Sean Fresch Jr. to clear waivers and return to the Broncos' practice squad, sees Riley Moss back from concussion for the Week 11 game at Las Vegas, and projects newly acquired Daiyan Henley to begin as the third inside linebacker behind Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad before likely moving into a starting role.Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman writes that Riley Moss may sit out the preseason finale against Minnesota but should be available for the Week 1 opener at Kansas City; they also suggest undrafted corners Sean Fresch Jr. and Brent Austin are being evaluated for practice squad spots.Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 23-14 on Thursday night and the Lions to beat the Patriots 30-24 in Munich.
More score predictions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picks the Commanders to edge the Giants 21-20 on Thursday and the Chiefs to beat the Falcons 26-20 in Week 10.Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Sullivan takes the Commanders 24-21 over the Giants on Thursday night and calls for a Steelers upset of the Bengals, 27-24, in Week 10.John Breech · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 90
Breech picks the Commanders to upset the Giants on Thursday night, 24-17, and takes the Texans to beat the Browns 24-16 in Week 10 behind a pass rush that should batter Deshaun Watson.Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picked seven Week 10 games with final scores, including a Commanders upset of the Giants, Lions over the Patriots in Munich, Chiefs over the Falcons, Packers edging the Vikings, 49ers over the Cowboys, Bengals over the Steelers and Ravens over the Chargers. They also suggested Joe Burrow could win MVP this season.John Breech · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 90
Breech gave straight-up score predictions for every Week 10 NFL game, including the desperate Commanders beating the Giants on Thursday night, the Lions handling the Patriots in Munich, the Texans beating Deshaun Watson and the Browns, and the Bengals surviving the Steelers at home despite returning from Madrid.