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A limited sample — under 30 graded articles.
99.43% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
hits
misses
Takes in each band
Everyone writing under this banner, pooled into the numbers above. Counted by article, with a paginated series counting once — the same rule used for an individual, from the published methodology.
Teams and players where FantasyPros’s writers keep landing outside the room: at least twice, a call published under this banner sat beyond every other pundit who made a comparable one — higher or lower than all of them, in a room of at least five voices. The bar is the banner’s standing lean (+100 would be the most bullish voice in every room), and the accuracy covers just those out-on-a-limb calls, once they settle. Computed, never chosen.
Outside the room in 13 of 15 articles (1 higher, 12 lower) · the strays aren’t settled yet
Outside the room in 12 of 16 articles — always lower · the strays aren’t settled yet
1451–1475 of 2,320
21 / 2,320
graded
2,299 still pending
Outside the room in 10 of 12 articles — always lower · the strays aren’t settled yet
Outside the room in 10 of 19 articles (1 higher, 9 lower) · the strays aren’t settled yet
Outside the room in 9 of 10 articles (2 higher, 7 lower) · the strays aren’t settled yet
Outside the room in 9 of 17 articles — always lower · the strays aren’t settled yet
Christian McCaffrey to fall short of his draft cost (RB3 price)
Christian McCaffrey is the running back I'm most likely to avoid at his current RB3 price... I believe the downside outweighs the upside at his current ADP
Christian McCaffreySan Francisco 49ers
Bucky Irving to fall short of his draft cost (46 overall)
I'm out on Bucky Irving at 46 overall, and Kenneth Gainwell is a much bigger part of that than I think the market is accounting for.
Bucky IrvingTampa Bay Buccaneers
Jeremiyah Love to fall short of his draft cost (26th overall, RB13)
I said it before his high ankle sprain, and I'll say it again now: Jeremiyah Love is far too expensive (26th overall, RB13).
Jeremiyah LoveArizona Cardinals
Jeremiyah Love to fall short of his draft cost (ECR 26, RB13)
Jeremyiah Love (ECR 26, RB13) ... This year, he is a player that I am avoiding.
Jeremiyah LoveArizona Cardinals
Tetairoa McMillan to fall short of his draft cost (WR18 price)
Tetairoa McMillan is a receiver I'm avoiding at his current WR18 price because fantasy managers are already paying for a sizable second-year leap.
Tetairoa McMillanCarolina Panthers
Christian McCaffrey to fall short of his draft cost (RB3 price in ADP)
Christian McCaffrey is one RB I'm avoiding at his current RB3 price in ADP... there are simply too many red flags for me to draft him at his current price.
Christian McCaffreySan Francisco 49ers
Justin Jefferson to fall short of his draft cost (fantasy's 12th overall player off the board)
Justin Jefferson is fantasy's 12th overall player off the board at the moment. No thank you... A mid-to-late 2nd round pick is far enough for JJ to rise up my board.
Justin JeffersonMinnesota Vikings
Breece Hall to fall short of his draft cost (His ADP of 33)
I'm avoiding Breece Hall in all of my drafts at his current price... His ADP of 33 assumes full health and strong efficiency, neither of which feels secure right now.
Garrett Wilson to fall short of his draft cost (inside the top 50)
Garrett Wilson is an excellent receiver, but I keep passing on him inside the top 50. I do not trust a Frank Reich offense to consistently create the concentrated volume needed for a true fantasy WR1 season.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. to outplay his draft cost (ADP: 157.3 (RB49))
Rodriguez certainly has the chops to handle short-yardage work... it makes rostering Rodriguez worthwhile to see how the roles shake out in Jacksonville's backfield.
Chris Rodriguez Jr.Jacksonville Jaguars
MarShawn Lloyd to outplay his draft cost (ADP: 187.3 (RB68))
He shouldn't go undrafted, as he's precisely the type of player gamers should stash instead of drafting a kicker or defense.
MarShawn LloydGreen Bay Packers
Terrance Ferguson to finish top 6 at his position, by fantasy points
Terrance Ferguson is an ideal TE2 for gamers chasing the upside of a top-six season at the position.
Terrance FergusonLos Angeles Rams
Terrance Ferguson to outplay his draft cost (ADP: 198.7 (TE26))
Terrance Ferguson is an ideal TE2 for gamers chasing the upside of a top-six season at the position.
Terrance FergusonLos Angeles Rams
Jalen Coker to outplay his draft cost (ADP: 165.0 (WR58))
Coker has demonstrable upside.
Khalil Shakir to outplay his draft cost (ADP: 157.0 (WR57))
I'm doubling down on my suggestion of Shakir as an exciting player to leave in drafts, with more upside than meets the eye.
MarShawn Lloyd to be 2nd on the depth chart
Lloyd is a dynamic player when healthy and should be Josh Jacobs' primary backup running back.
MarShawn LloydGreen Bay Packers
Daniel Jones to outplay his draft cost (ADP: 174.3 (QB27))
Daniel Jones is the most intriguing, break-glass-in-an-emergency pick among players selected after pick 150... there's proof of concept of him playing as a QB1 in fantasy football for 10 weeks just last season.
Daniel JonesIndianapolis Colts
Terrance Ferguson to be 3rd on the depth chart
a well-rounded pass-catching weapon in a top-heavy pass-catching corps, with a path to being the team's No. 3 passing-game option
Terrance FergusonLos Angeles Rams
Jonah Coleman to outplay his draft cost (ADP: 157.3 (RB50))
He has an interesting skill set and warrants stashing on benches early in the season.
DJ Moore to be 1st on the depth chart
Moore becomes the de facto first read for Josh Allen on all passing plays.
Justin Herbert to finish top 5 at his position, by fantasy points
If the Chargers stay healthy this season, he will threaten to finish within the top five at the position.
Justin HerbertLos Angeles Chargers
Jadarian Price to outplay his draft cost (ranked as the RB26 in ECR)
For some reason, Price is ranked as the RB26 in ECR, behind committee/rotational backs like Quinshon Judkins, Bhayshul Tuten and TreVeyon Henderson. I'll invest in Price wherever possible.
Jadarian PriceSeattle Seahawks
Jadarian Price to be 1st on the depth chart
Seattle brought in Jadarian Price to immediately slide into the vacancy that Kenneth Walker III left behind... Price seems set to dominate touches for the Seahawks early in the season.
Jadarian PriceSeattle Seahawks
Emeka Egbuka to record 1,097 receiving yards
Our current projections have him finishing with 192 fantasy points amid a 73/1,097/8 split — I'm more bullish on his ability to surpass those totals.
Emeka EgbukaTampa Bay Buccaneers
Emeka Egbuka to record 192 fantasy points
Our current projections have him finishing with 192 fantasy points amid a 73/1,097/8 split — I'm more bullish on his ability to surpass those totals.
Emeka EgbukaTampa Bay Buccaneers