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Graded under the published methodology. Each call shows what it scored and how much better than a naive guess that was. How this kind is scored →
A first-round mock-draft pick missed where the player actually went by 10.3 picks on average, across 1,645 graded first-round picks; mocked in late day 3 (176+), the average miss grows to 50.1 picks.
Among the 11 pundits with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Chris Brockman has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +50.0, 76.0% accuracy across 36 graded picks.
Among the 15 publishers with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Locked On Chiefs (podcast) has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +49.2, 67.8% accuracy across 53 graded picks.
59% settled
out of 100
Takes in each band
2,917 / 4,926
graded
2,009 still pending
By season
Across the 2,101 graded exact-pick calls from every pundit and every draft, not only the 5 above: average miss on top-ten picks 2.7 slots across 739 calls; rest of round one 7.2 slots across 691.
1–25 of 4,926
Charlie Becker to be picked “probably like a top-15 pick” (picks 1–15)
They had Charlie Becker, who's going to be a first-round pick. I mean, probably like a top-15 pick.
LaNorris Sellers to be picked at number 25
I'm going to be messy at No. 25 and give them Sellers
Tavion Gadson to be picked “top 60 prospects” (picks 1–60)
For Kentucky, offensive tackle Lance Heard and defensive tackle Tavion Gadson appear to be top 60 prospects.
Ellis Robinson to be picked at number 18
let's send Georgia cornerback Ellis Robinson IV to Cleveland with the Rams' pick at No. 18
Zalance Heard to be picked “top 60 prospects” (picks 1–60)
For Kentucky, offensive tackle Lance Heard and defensive tackle Tavion Gadson appear to be top 60 prospects.
A'Mauri Washington to be picked at number 30
followed by Oregon defensive tackle A'Mauri Washington with their second pick [No. 30 from Chicago]
Charlie Becker to be picked at number 6
Let's go with Indiana wide receiver Charlie Becker at No. 6
C.J. Carr to be picked “doesn't fall past No. 9”
in case you're wondering, I don't see Carr falling past No. 9 to the Cardinals
Dylan Stewart to be picked at number 5
let's give them South Carolina edge rusher Dylan Stewart at No. 5
Jeremiah Smith to be picked at number 1
let's assume the Chargers go with Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith at No. 1
Leonard Moore to be picked at number 4
New York should go with Notre Dame cornerback Leonard Moore to solidify the back end of the defense [No. 4 from Indianapolis]
Colin Simmons to be picked at number 2
I think a good scenario would be Texas edge rusher Colin Simmons at No. 2
Trinidad Chambliss to be picked at number 13
The Jets' final first-rounder would need to be a quarterback ... let's go with Chambliss [No. 13 from Dallas]
Austin Simmons to be picked at number 16
for the Browns, I'm giving them Missouri quarterback Austin Simmons at No. 16
Drew Mestemaker to be picked at number 3
and Mestemaker lands in Miami at No. 3
Chris Cole to be picked “top-50 draft picks” (picks 1–50)
quality draft talent like Chris Cole at linebacker along with Ellis Robinson IV and KJ Bolden in the secondary. All three will almost certainly be top-50 draft picks.
Trey'Dez Green to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
Green is likely to take advantage of a fairly thin tight end class at the top and declare for this April with a strong chance of getting selected in the first round.
KJ Bolden to be picked “top-50 draft picks” (picks 1–50)
Ellis Robinson IV and KJ Bolden in the secondary. All three will almost certainly be top-50 draft picks.
Ellis Robinson to be picked “top-50 draft picks” (picks 1–50)
Ellis Robinson IV and KJ Bolden in the secondary. All three will almost certainly be top-50 draft picks.
Arch Manning to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
Arch Manning has returned to the first round in our latest 2027 NFL mock draft .
Jamari Johnson to be picked at number 19
Sobleski has the Panthers picking 19th in the draft for the second straight year ... to draft Oregon TE Jamari Johnson.
Ashton Hampton to be picked “drafted before 19th overall”
At 19th overall, Carolina will miss out on some cornerbacks such as Notre Dame's Leonard Moore and Clemson's Ashton Hampton
Leonard Moore to be picked “drafted before 19th overall”
At 19th overall, Carolina will miss out on some cornerbacks such as Notre Dame's Leonard Moore and Clemson's Ashton Hampton
A'Mauri Washington to be picked at number 21
Pick No. 21 (via Packers): A'Mauri Washington, DT, Oregon
K.J. Duff to be picked “first-round prospect” (picks 1–32)
other first-round prospects like Jeremiah Smith and KJ Duff are comfortably ahead of Becker in after-catch production
