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Derek Brown, known as "DBro," is a senior fantasy football and NFL analyst for FantasyPros, where Brown writes analysis columns like "The Primer" and co-hosts shows including Sweating Sundays. The work centers on fantasy football rankings, start/sit advice, and player breakdowns, with predictions touching the Packers, Panthers, Dolphins, Broncos, Patriots, 49ers, Cowboys, and Titans. Brown also appears on the FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast and has been featured on The Herd with Colin Cowherd. The calls here run from fantasy sleepers and busts to positional finishes, depth charts, game outcomes, and season stat projections, with Jonathon Brooks, Tony Pollard, Christian Watson, Jaylen Waddle, and Isaiah Likely among the names in the graded record.
More about Derek Brown ↓Writes at FantasyPros
Across 115 graded calls in 18 articles, Derek Brown scores 69.56% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 48.03, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims.
That is a limited sample, under thirty graded articles, so treat it with caution. That ranks #12 of 87 ranked NFL pundits on the MissedTakes leaderboard. Their strongest kind of call is Fantasy Bust Calls (81.25% accuracy across 12 graded calls); their weakest is Positional Finishes (12.85% across 19 graded calls).
How accurate are NFL experts overall? →
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below opens to its own arithmetic.
All 499 calls · one square per 5 calls
59hits51% of graded
14Close12%
42misses37%
How much better than a naive guess on the same claims. This is the ranking.
Teams and players where Derek Brown keeps landing outside the room: at least twice, their call sat beyond every other pundit who made a comparable one — higher or lower than all of them, in a room of at least five voices. The bar is their standing lean (+100 would be the most bullish voice in every room), and the accuracy covers just those out-on-a-limb calls, once they settle.
Outside the room in 2 of 2 articles — always lower · the strays aren’t settled yet
Derek Brown, known as "DBro," is a senior fantasy football and NFL analyst for FantasyPros, where Brown writes analysis columns like "The Primer" and co-hosts shows including Sweating Sundays. The work centers on fantasy football rankings, start/sit advice, and player breakdowns, with predictions touching the Packers, Panthers, Dolphins, Broncos, Patriots, 49ers, Cowboys, and Titans. Brown also appears on the FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast and has been featured on The Herd with Colin Cowherd. The calls here run from fantasy sleepers and busts to positional finishes, depth charts, game outcomes, and season stat projections, with Jonathon Brooks, Tony Pollard, Christian Watson, Jaylen Waddle, and Isaiah Likely among the names in the graded record.
A longer profile is written once a record reaches 30 graded articles, and published only after a person reviews it.
115 graded calls in 18 articles, newest first — page 1 of 4. Every take from Derek Brown, including the ones still waiting →
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
384waitingnot graded yet
The same 87, by how often their calls landed, with no credit for difficulty.
Why the ranks differ: a naive guess scores very differently depending on which calls were made, from 15.25% on the hardest record here to 85.71% on the easiest. Accuracy alone flatters easy calls, so by accuracy Derek Brown would be #23; the Score measures the lift over a naive guess on the same calls, and that puts this record at #12.
| # | Pundit | Score | Accuracy | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Shanna McCarriston | 50.5 | 71.26% | 20 |
| 11 | Lance Zierlein | 48.28 | 64.33% | 45 |
| 12 | Derek Brown | 48.03 | 69.56% | 115 |
| 13 | Gennaro Filice | 47.94 | 66.91% | 38 |
| 14 | Hondo Carpenter | 46.67 | 70% | 13 |
Outside the room in 2 of 2 articles — always lower · the strays aren’t settled yet
Outside the room in 2 of 5 articles — always lower · when they strayed: 8.3 accuracy (2 settled)
Buffalo Bills to beat Vikings
“So how I'm projecting this game, I think the Bills win.”
Closing line (Nov 9): Bills by 3 · favorite pick, Bills 62%.
Green Bay Packers to beat Patriots
“I think the Packers win. I think the Packers win outright.”
Closing line (Nov 8): Patriots by 3 · underdog pick, Packers 38%.
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Falcons
“Who do you think wins this game? ... Yeah. Cincinnati.”
Closing line (Nov 8): Bengals by 3 · favorite pick, Bengals 62%.
Los Angeles Rams to beat Chargers
“That's the only thing that's pushing, and I think the Rams roll on this one.”
Closing line (Nov 1): Rams by 6.5 · favorite pick, Rams 71%.
Detroit Lions to beat Vikings
“I think the Lions win this game. And I think this comes down to two distinct factors.”
Closing line (Nov 1): Lions by 3 · favorite pick, Lions 60%.
Chicago Bears to beat Falcons
“I will lean slightly in the direction of the bears, but this game is a fricking toss up for me.”
Closing line (Oct 18): Bears by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bears 52%, Falcons 48%.
Buffalo Bills 31 — Rams 28
“31-28, Bills. I just think Josh Allen has one of those Josh Allen games”
Closing line (Oct 12): Rams by 3.5, total 55.5 · this 31–28 calls a Bills win (by 3; the line gave the Bills 38%) and more points (59).
Chicago Bears to beat Packers
“I think the Bears win, but I do. I'm agreeing with it. See, like, I think it's a close game.”
Closing line (Oct 11): Bears by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bears 53%, Packers 47%.
New Orleans Saints to beat Falcons
“yeah i'm taking the saints um shout out steve gleason i think the saints are going to be highly motivated”
Closing line (Oct 5): Saints by 1.5 · a toss-up, Falcons 48%, Saints 52%.
Jacksonville Jaguars 31 — Bengals 28
“I think this game is going to be a shootout... I think it's thirty one twenty eight and I am taking the Jacksonville Jaguars.”
Closing line (Oct 4): Bengals by 2.5, total 51.5 · this 31–28 calls a Jaguars win (by 3; the line gave the Jaguars 43%) and more points (59).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21 — Vikings 18
“I was going to go like 21, 18, and I'm also going to take the Buccaneers here.”
Closing line (Sep 27): Vikings by 1.5, total 42.5 · this 21–18 calls a Buccaneers win (by 3; the line gave the Buccaneers 50%) and fewer points (39).
San Francisco 49ers to beat Dolphins
“Black will likely see a similar workload in Week 2 as I expect the 49ers to blow out the Dolphins, which means Black will get plenty of garbage time usage.”
Closing line (Sep 20): 49ers by 12.5 · favorite pick, 49ers about 6 in 7 (86%).
Carnell Tate to be picked “top ten pick” (picks 1–10)
“because I'm like, dude, he's always been a top ten pick of we talking about top ten or now top five. I mean, you can make a case for the Giants, you can make a case for the Tennessee Titans to take him at four or five.”