Colts: 31 of 35 Pundits Picked Indianapolis Over Tennessee, and the Upset Caught Nearly All of Them | MissedTakes Daily
Drafted by a language model from MissedTakes' graded data, then reviewed and approved by Ben Garves before publishing. How our posts are made
The Indianapolis Colts have given pundits a rough season to call: a 2-4 start after back-to-back 8-9 finishes, a midseason firing of general manager Chris Ballard, and a growing argument over whether star running back Jonathan Taylor gets traded before the November 10 deadline. The clearest single data point on how that's gone: 31 of 35 pundits picked the Colts to beat the Titans in Week 6, and Tennessee won anyway, 26-20.
How did pundits call the Titans-Colts upset?
Indianapolis was the overwhelming consensus pick at home against Tennessee in Week 6, and the Titans won outright. Of 35 pundits with a graded call on the game, 31 took the Colts and only four took the Titans. Every Colts pick, whether a straight winner call or a specific score, came back with the same zero accuracy and zero skill credit that any default home-team pick gets when it loses.
The score calls were no closer. All 12 graded score predictions on the game came from pundits who picked the Colts, and none landed within five points of the actual 6-point Titans margin. Gennaro Filice was the only pundit in the graded sample to back Tennessee, and even his score call (Titans 14-13) missed the final margin by 5 points, the closest anyone got.
Which Colts prediction types are earning pundits the least trust?
Playoff-berth calls on the Colts have fared the worst of any type we track for the team this season. Across eight graded playoff picks, the average accuracy is 12.5 and the average skill score is -138.1, meaning those calls have landed far below what simply guessing against form would have produced. Season win-total calls and roster-spot calls have also run negative, though on small samples (four and 13 graded calls respectively), while score predictions (39 graded, +41.4 average skill) and mock draft picks tied to the Colts (20 graded, +31.8) have actually beaten the baseline.
| Prediction type | Graded calls | Accuracy | Skill delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade and Signing Calls | 5 | 60.0 | +80.0 |
| Score Predictions | 39 | 54.8 | +41.4 |
| Mock Draft Picks | 20 | 69.1 | +31.8 |
| Game Outcome Picks | 43 | 32.6 | +13.3 |
| Positional Finishes | 8 | 50.0 | -6.7 |
| Depth Chart Calls | 25 | 92.7 | -7.3 |
| Roster Spot Calls | 13 | 46.2 | -30.8 |
| Playoff Picks | 8 | 12.5 | -138.1 |
Depth-chart calls on the Colts are a useful case: accuracy of 92.7 looks strong, but the average skill score is still slightly negative, because those calls are mostly easy enough (who's starting at a given spot) that a default guess does nearly as well.
Which pundits have the most credible record on the Colts?
Among pundits with at least five graded Colts calls, Kyle Crabbs and Colin Cowherd have the best combination of volume and results: both have gone 9-for-9 on grading with positive skill scores (+37.4 and +24.3). Gregg Rosenthal has the highest raw accuracy in the group (75.2 on six graded calls) but still carries a negative skill score (-31.2), the same pattern as the depth-chart numbers above, accurate on calls that were already fairly easy to get right. Chris Brockman has the weakest record of the group, with a 22.6 accuracy and a -73.7 skill score across seven graded calls.
| Pundit | Graded Colts calls | Accuracy | Skill delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rich Eisen | 26 | 55.1 | -12.7 |
| John Middlekauff | 9 | 64.4 | -47.8 |
| Kyle Crabbs | 9 | 56.4 | +37.4 |
| Colin Cowherd | 9 | 54.5 | +24.3 |
| Chris Brockman | 7 | 22.6 | -73.7 |
| Gregg Rosenthal | 6 | 75.2 | -31.2 |
| Nick Wright | 5 | 44.2 | +24.8 |
| Tyler Sullivan | 5 | 61.4 | +33.4 |
John Middlekauff's average hides his best single call on the Colts: a take on the show arguing Indianapolis whiffed on quarterback Anthony Richardson, comparing him to Trey Lance, graded 100 accuracy with a +200 skill score, one of the best-graded calls anywhere on the site in the last week. Carter Bahns made a similar argument on October 19, calling Richardson a bust at this stage of his career; that one hasn't been graded yet.
Is Jonathan Taylor getting traded?
Pundits don't agree. Zachary Pereles laid out five mock trades sending Taylor to teams including the Giants and Bengals, and Jordan Dajani separately named Taylor one of five stars he'd like to see moved before the deadline. But Drake Wally argued the opposite the same week, saying the Colts will avoid a fire sale and keep core players including Taylor, DeForest Buckner and Sauce Gardner despite Ballard's firing, and Patricia Traina separately predicted the Giants specifically won't trade for a back like Taylor. None of those calls are graded yet; the deadline will settle it.
What else moved in league punditry this week?
Pundits had 424 calls graded across the site in the last seven days, most of them game winners (258) and final scores (123). The season win-total consensus still shows its widest misses from 2025: the field's Kansas City Chiefs calls missed by 6.4 wins on nine callers, and the Washington Commanders calls missed by 5.2 wins on six. On awards, Matthew Stafford was the 2025 MVP, picked by 24 of 68 ballots in our count, well ahead of Drake Maye's 10; Tetairoa McMillan won Offensive Rookie of the Year with 5 of 29 picks, tied with Ashton Jeanty for the most backing. Bryan DeArdo sits atop the overall leaderboard with an 84.62 skill score on 21 graded calls, ahead of Damonza Byrd and Mike Florio.