Isaac Saul Flips to the Democrats on Senate Control as Kansas Loses Its Second-to-Last Hamilton Backer | MissedTakes Election Brief

Why did Isaac Saul switch his Senate call to the Democrats?

Isaac Saul reversed his Senate control call this week, moving from Republicans to Democrats in the space of two weeks. On October 8 he wrote: "I think Republicans are gonna hold the senate." By October 22 he'd flipped entirely: "That's the senate majority for Democrats, 51 right there," pairing the new call with a seat count of 52 Democratic seats to 48 Republican. Saul carries a settled record from last cycle, 79.4% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 46.6 across 63 graded calls, so the switch comes from someone whose calls have generally landed.

The reversal also lands Saul in the busier half of a field that is now split down the middle. Across the 22 pundits who have called Senate control, 11 say Democratic and 11 say Republican. That's a sharp change from four weeks ago, when only 3 pundits had called it at all (2 Republican, 1 Democratic). The race's 3 forecasters lean Democratic (2 of 3), while the 19 talkers are nearly even, 10 Republican to 9 Democratic, Saul's move pulled him out of the talker majority and into the minority side.

Why did Chuck Todd flip on Kansas, and who's still holding out?

Chuck Todd reversed his Kansas Senate call this week, swinging from Adam Hamilton to Roger Marshall. On October 6 he said: "I think Hamilton is the favorite now... I think it's more than likely" that Democrats win Kansas. By October 22 he'd reversed course: "what it probably means is that Democrats come up short in Kansas, short in Mississippi, short in South Carolina." Todd doesn't carry a graded record from last cycle, so there's no prior track to measure the swing against.

Todd's move leaves Mike Murphy as the field's lone Hamilton backer, standing against 8 pundits now on Marshall. Murphy's own record from last cycle is thin and rough: 17.3% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of -8.1 across 12 graded calls, a small sample that came in badly. Kansas itself has grown fast, just 3 callers four weeks ago, all for Marshall, versus 9 now, and VoteHub's single tracked poll (through October 14) has Marshall up just 1 point, 48-47, so Murphy's outlier pick isn't obviously contradicted by the polling, thin as that polling is.

Why is the Texas market so much more confident in Talarico than the talkers are?

Polymarket prices James Talarico at 67 cents to Ken Paxton's 34 in the Texas Senate race, a wider gap than the ground the polls show: VoteHub's 8-poll average through October 21 has Talarico up just 2.1 points, 48.5% to 46.4%. The pundit field doesn't match either reading. Of the 19 callers on record, 12 favor Paxton and 7 favor Talarico, but split the field by role and the picture flips. All 3 tracked forecasters are on Talarico, while the 16 talkers go 12-4 for Paxton.

New calls this week kept arriving on the Talarico side of the ledger: Sarah Isgur backed him again on October 23, and Chuck Todd, unflipped here, unlike his Kansas call, has had Talarico since October 5 and restated it October 21 and 22. Four weeks ago the whole Texas field numbered just 5 callers (3 Paxton, 2 Talarico); it's nearly quadrupled since, with Paxton's talker advantage holding even as the market and the forecasters move further toward Talarico.

Who's filing the most calls this week?

Chuck Todd filed the most calls of anyone this week, 33, more than double the next-most-active pundit.

On the record

The 2026 cycle now holds 565 calls from 87 pundits, with 89 of those calls filed in the last week and 43 new since our last brief. None of this cycle's calls have been graded yet, since the races haven't been decided. Every call and every pundit's standing record can be checked against the election leaderboard or browsed from the US Elections hub.