The House Control Field Goes From Two Callers to Thirty-Two, All of Them Democratic | MissedTakes Election Brief
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The House Control Field Goes From Two Callers to Thirty-Two, All of Them Democratic
The field calling control of the House has grown from just two pundits four weeks ago to 32 today, and every single one of them, forecasters and talkers alike, picks Democratic. That's the sharpest movement on the board with 15 days left before Election Day, and it includes both of the race's forecasters, Kyle Kondik and G. Elliott Morris, standing alongside all 30 talkers who've made a call.
No pundit has picked Republican control of the House at any point this cycle. The buildup has been gradual, then sudden: five more names joined the Democratic column in the two days after our last brief alone, including Chuck Todd on October 19, CBS News on October 18 ("have the edge to take the House"), Bakari Sellers on October 18, G. Elliott Morris on October 18, and Amy Walter on October 18. David Pakman had already added his pick on October 16.
Control of the Senate looks nothing like this. Forecasters there are tied, one for each party, while 11 of 18 talkers favor Republicans, a split the House field simply doesn't have.
Who's producing the Democratic wave of calls?
Chuck Todd has made more calls this cycle than anyone tracked, 77 in all, with 19 of them arriving in the past week, though he carries no graded record from the last cycle, so his volume is untested rather than validated. Two of this week's new House-control names come with thin but clean early marks: Bakari Sellers is 100% accurate on 5 graded calls (MissedTakes Score 12.5, provisional), and Amy Walter is 97% accurate on 5 graded calls with a Score of 64, also provisional. David Pakman's record runs deeper, 76.9% accuracy across 32 graded calls (Score 14.2, limited confidence), which makes him the most tested voice among this week's new arrivals.
Which pundits are standing alone?
David Nir is the only forecaster backing Josh Turek in Iowa's Senate race, against nine callers who have Ashley Hinson, in a contest VoteHub's average has within half a point and Polymarket prices at 59 cents for Hinson. Nir's overall record is 96.3% accuracy on 26 graded calls, but his MissedTakes Score of -0.5 means that near-perfect accuracy has barely beaten the baseline of picking the favorite each time, a limited-confidence mark worth keeping in mind as he holds a position the market leans against.
Ari Weitzman is alone on Nebraska, backing Dan Osborn against four callers elsewhere in that field. His record is thin and mixed: 20% accuracy on just 6 graded calls, yet a MissedTakes Score of 20.4, positive enough that his rare hits outweighed his misses, though six graded calls isn't enough to lean on either way.
On the record
The 2026 cycle holds 487 calls from 84 pundits so far, with 68 of them logged in the past week. None of this cycle's calls have been graded yet, since nothing has been decided. Browse the full election leaderboard or every race pundits have called at the US Elections hub.