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Writes at Tangle (newsletter)
Is Isaac Saul accurate? Across 18 graded calls in 9 articles, Isaac Saul scores 79.63% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 75.96, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.
100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.
“I predicted that Trump would win the election but lose Pennsylvania.”
“Based on information I had two weeks ago, I predicted that Trump would win the election but lose Pennsylvania... I'm also not feeling so moved to abandon my initial call. I still think Trump just has more paths to the presidency electorally and so I'm hanging tight for the final forty eight hours.”
“I predicted that Trump would win the election but lose Pennsylvania... I'm also not feeling so moved as to abandon my initial call.”
“Based on information I had two weeks ago, I predicted that Trump would win the election but lose Pennsylvania... But I'm also not feeling so moved as to abandon my initial call. I just think Trump has more paths to the presidency, and so I'm hanging tight for the final 48 hours.”
“I've made this prediction that Trump is going to lose Pennsylvania but win Michigan.”
“I've made this prediction that Trump is going to lose Pennsylvania but win Michigan... a fairly likely outcome here is that Kamala Harris wins Pennsylvania and loses the election.”
“And, again, I think he's going to win... including my own, given I picked Trump to win... a fairly likely outcome here is that Kamala Harris wins Pennsylvania and loses the election.”
“Number three, I think Trump is going to win.”
“I also argued that Trump had a path to winning in Michigan, that Democrats would win the House”
“one of my headline predictions was that Vice President Kamala Harris would win Pennsylvania but lose the election”
“and that Republicans would come away with 53 seats in the Senate”
“It was a silly and reckless move from a campaign well positioned to win this election, but still often prone to getting in its own way.”
“Two Fridays ago, I shared my predictions for the twenty twenty four election. In that addition, I predicted Harris was on track to lose Michigan... Democratic representative Alyssa Slotkin's warning that Harris was underwater in internal polling solidified my sense that she's going to lose this state. Nothing that's happened since has changed my mind about that prediction.”
“I predicted Trump will win Michigan, and Harris's struggles with Muslim and Arab-American voters are a big reason why. ... In that edition, I predicted Harris was on track to lose Michigan.”
“They're pulling ahead of Republicans battleground senate races, but will likely lose their majority because of how many seats they're defending.”
“These are all significant and critical advantages, which is why I think Trump will ultimately win the election.”
“They are polling ahead of Republicans in battleground Senate races (but will likely lose their majority because of how many seats they are defending)”
“These are all significant and critical advantages, which is why I think Trump will ultimately win the election .”