Megyn Kelly Flips on Michigan's Senate Race as Its Field Grows to 29 | MissedTakes Election Brief
Drafted by a language model from MissedTakes' graded data, then reviewed and approved by Ben Garves before publishing. How our posts are made
Who reversed a Senate call this week?
Megyn Kelly swung from Abdul El-Sayed to Mike Rogers in Michigan's Senate race, reversing a call she made three weeks earlier. On October 7 she said: "in Michigan, El Sayed has been ahead in every poll, like, the whole time... Now in my experience as a political journalist, when that happens, that person wins." On October 28 she said: "So I don't think that El Sayed will lose in Michigan. I think Mike Rogers is gonna lose as he did the last time ... No. El Sayed is gonna win because of his position on Israel. That's what I think." Her logged pick for that second date is Rogers.
Kelly carries a graded record from last cycle: 25 graded calls across 13 articles, right 76.9% of the time, with a MissedTakes Score of 29.1 (above zero means her calls beat a plain guess more than they fell short of one). She has made three calls total this cycle, and two of them are the two ends of this reversal.
Michigan's field has grown to 29 callers, up from 10 four weeks ago, and now splits 17 for Abdul El-Sayed to 12 for Rogers. Every forecaster in the race, 2 of 2, still has El-Sayed; the 27 talkers split 15 to 12. Chuck Todd, who carries no graded election record from last cycle, picked El-Sayed the same day Kelly moved to Rogers, saying he has "a pretty good chance of winning." Polymarket prices El-Sayed at 73 cents to Rogers' 28; VoteHub's five-poll average has El-Sayed up 48.1 to 46.1.
How unanimous is North Carolina's Senate race?
North Carolina's Senate field is unanimous: all 15 pundits who have called it pick Roy Cooper, up from 4 callers four weeks ago. The three forecasters in the race agree, including David Nir, whose last-cycle record reads 96.3 accuracy across 26 graded calls with a MissedTakes Score of -0.5. So do all 12 talkers, among them Erick-Woods Erickson, who called Cooper on October 20 and again on October 26 and carries a 79.8 accuracy, 45.9 score mark from last cycle, and Isaac Saul, who called Cooper twice (October 8 and October 22) carrying a 79.4 accuracy, 46.6 score mark. Polymarket has Cooper at 98 cents to Michael Whatley's 3; VoteHub's five-poll average puts Cooper up 52.7 to 40.8, an 11.9-point margin.
Which races added the most callers over the past four weeks?
Control of the House picked up the most callers of any subject we track, growing from 12 to 37 over the past four weeks, with every one of those 37 still picking Democratic control. Michigan's Senate race added the second-most, gaining 19 callers, while Maine's and overall Senate control each added 14.
| Race | Callers now | Four weeks ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Control of the House | 37 | 12 | +25 |
| Michigan Senate | 29 | 10 | +19 |
| Control of the Senate | 25 | 11 | +14 |
| Maine Senate | 17 | 3 | +14 |
| Texas Senate | 20 | 9 | +11 |
| North Carolina Senate | 15 | 4 | +11 |
| Ohio Senate special | 15 | 4 | +11 |
| South Carolina Senate | 12 | 2 | +10 |
| Georgia Senate | 15 | 6 | +9 |
| Minnesota Senate | 10 | 3 | +7 |
| Iowa Senate | 12 | 6 | +6 |
| New Hampshire Senate | 10 | 4 | +6 |
Who is driving the most calls this cycle?
Chuck Todd has made 133 calls this cycle, more than any other pundit we track, including 40 in the past week and 16 on October 29 alone, covering races from Texas's Senate seat to Ohio's governorship to the national House popular vote margin. He carries no graded election record from last cycle. Kyle Kondik, a forecaster, has made 69 calls this cycle but has only 1 graded call to his name from last cycle, so his 100 accuracy and MissedTakes Score of 0 reflect a single data point rather than a pattern.
On the record
We have tracked 679 calls this cycle from 99 pundits, including 137 in the past week and 49 since our last brief. See the full US Elections hub or the election leaderboard for where every pundit stands.
