Steve Deace Swings Back to a Republican Senate as New Hampshire's Field Grows to Ten Callers | MissedTakes Election Brief
Drafted by a language model from MissedTakes' graded data, then reviewed and approved by Ben Garves before publishing. How our posts are made
Why did Steve Deace swing back to a Republican Senate?
Steve Deace reversed his call on control of the Senate this month, moving from Democratic to Republican. On September 28 he said: "Democrats will come out of this with a fifty one forty nine senate majority." By October 26 he said: "And then I think Republicans will come out of this," projecting a 51-to-53-seat Republican Senate the same day.
The reversal came with rising numbers attached. On October 23, between those two calls, Deace put Republicans at "anywhere from 50 to 52" Senate seats; by October 26 he raised that to 51 to 53.
Deace carries a graded record from last cycle of 70 calls, 54.1 accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 2.2, above zero, meaning his calls beat picking the home team, though barely. Broken down by category, his best category last cycle was margins (81.7 accuracy on 7 graded calls); on chamber control specifically, the category this reversal falls under, he graded 66.7 accuracy on 6 calls, above his overall mark.
How has the New Hampshire Senate field shifted this month?
New Hampshire's Senate field has grown from 4 callers four weeks ago to 10 now, with Chris Pappas holding 8 of 10 picks to John E. Sununu's 2. Polymarket prices Pappas at 90 cents to Sununu's 11 as of October 28, and VoteHub's one poll through October 20 has Pappas up 50 to 43, a 7-point margin.
The one forecaster on the race, Kyle Kondik, has called it "Leans Democratic" for Pappas twice, on September 16 and September 29; his record from last cycle stands at a single graded call, which came back correct. Among opinion sharers, 7 of 9 back Pappas, including Isaac Saul, who picked him on October 22 off a record of 63 graded calls, 79.4 accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 46.6.
Two opinionists stand against the forecaster, the market and the polls. Buck Sexton has had Sununu since September 17, repeated October 6, off a record of 25 graded calls and 59.9 accuracy. Sean Spicer added a fresh Sununu pick on October 28, the field's newest call in the race; his record reads 85.9 accuracy, but on just 16 graded calls across 2 articles, a far smaller sample than Saul's 63.
Who is producing the most calls this week?
Chuck Todd leads the field in volume this cycle with 113 calls, 25 of them in the past week, including fresh picks on October 26 in Virginia's 1st district and the Alaska Senate race. He carries no graded record from last cycle, so his volume arrives without a track record attached. Todd has also been on Pappas in New Hampshire since September 16.
On the record
The 2026 cycle holds 623 calls from 95 pundits, 113 of them in the past week and 17 since our last brief, with none graded yet and Election Day 6 days off. See the full field on the US Elections hub and the Election leaderboard.