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Writes at The Inside Elections Podcast
Across 7 graded calls in 1 article, Erin Covey scores 78.33% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of -10.2, which means their calls were worse than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.
100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
They hedged 83.33% of their claims — a “probably”, a “could”, a “wouldn’t be surprised”.
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.
“We still have... We have 202 races favoring, Democrats, 207 favoring Republicans.”
“right now, we have Brandon Williams, a Republican in Upstate New York in the lean Democrat column”
“We still have... We have 202 races favoring, Democrats, 207 favoring Republicans.”
“I think New York seventeen is definitely a race that fits in that category... now it's at a point where it looks like Republicans are at least the slight favorite, to hold it.”
“We have we have her in lean d, which is probably the one that Republicans disagree with the most out of all of our ratings.”
“We just moved that race to solid Democratic, and you guys still have it at lean Democratic... So I do think this is a race that probably should move on our end.”
“And so I think if you... If you're just, like, dividing it down the middle, it's like, I I think you can probably say that maybe Republicans have the slightest of edges, but it is very, very close.”