The Inside Elections Podcast

we do the top 10 most likely to flip. West Virginia was the wire to wire, number one spot there. Montana, number two the whole time, and Ohio, three... Nebraska did make an appearance on the back end of our list at 10. Texas moved up a single spot, to nine.

our outlook in the senate is pretty favorable to Republicans. They need a net gain of two seats to reclaim the majority, and we have them favored.

I think Harris... You'd still rather be Harris than Trump at this point.

as well as the Pennsylvania senate race between Democrat Bob Casey junior and Republican Dave McCormack. We'd left those in our tilt Democratic category.

you guys just shifted Virginia seven to tilt democratic

you moved the Zach Nunn race... from toss-up to tilt republican... Now Nunn... he has repaired that image.

I forget which one you guys have, Virginia seven... Virginia two right now. Tilt republican.

moving Texas from lean Republican to tilt Republican, which is just one step away from toss-up

We've left the Wisconsin senate race between Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican Eric Hovde... in our tilt Democratic category.

we see the most likely outcome is anywhere from a Democratic net gain of nine seats to a Republican net gain of a single seat

Our likely projection is any... Is a net gain of two to four seats for Republicans.

Like you said, Republicans are still favored to take control of the senate this year.

I still think that given the general attitude towards folks right now that, toward the the direction of the country, still feelings about the economy... that it's still Trump's race to lose

They've raised a lot of money. You see a last minute investment coming in from national groups here right now, but I think it might be a little bit too little too late here to really push that across the line.

A a a tilt Republican district in our ratings.

as of next year, we'll almost certainly be represented by Democrat Sarah Elfreth

Those were two ads from Iowa's 1st Congressional District, which we moved from toss-up to tilt Democratic.

Ranking how certain we are about outcomes in the twenty twenty four elections, a Republican controlled senate, I think is the most... It's not a guarantee, but it's it's the most certain

In Nevada's 4th District, we moved democrat Stephen Horsford from likely democratic off the board to solid democratic.

We already have them favored in New York, 22, and in Nebraska's 2nd District.

Our overall range right now is anything from a Democratic gain of nine seats to a Republican gain of six seats.

We have it as tilt Republican, and and we're all gonna be watching those Virginia districts

In New York's 22nd District, we moved New York Republican Brandon Williams from tilt democratic where he was already an underdog to lean democratic

in Texas' 34th District, we moved congressman Vicente Gonzalez, a democrat, from likely Democratic to lean Democratic

the the rating changed, from likely Republican to lean Republican. So one click less favorable to Deb Fischer, the incumbent senator... We still clearly see Fisher as favored.