Erin Covey· Oct 17, 2024

Covey said whichever party wins the House will do so by only a couple of seats and that Republicans have the slightest of edges, citing Cook's tally of 202 races favoring Democrats and 207 favoring Republicans. She also gave Cook's ratings: Lean Democratic in Oregon's 6th, Lean Democratic for Brandon Williams' upstate New York seat and Marcy Kaptur's Ohio seat, and Republicans as slight favorites to hold New York's 17th.

“I think you can probably say that maybe Republicans have the slightest of edges, but it is very, very close.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Inside Elections Podcast · read the original →

7 checkable claims — 4 race winners, 2 seat counts and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 7 have settled, averaging 81.4 out of 100, against 82.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Their call against what happened

202They said

215What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

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7 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Seat CountsOct 17, 2024
“We still have... We have 202 races favoring, Democrats, 207 favoring Republicans.”
Miss · 35Scored 35a naive guess scored 90-56.1 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2024
party:
Democratic
seats after:
215
skill:
−56.1
topic:
elections
what happened:
215
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2024-house
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
35
baseline:
90
they said:
202
days before the vote when called:
18
difficulty:
1.02
seats before:
213
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the naive guess said:
213
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 17, 2024
“right now, we have Brandon Williams, a Republican in Upstate New York in the lean Democrat column”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-ny-22
election year:
2024
skill:
102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
lean Democrat
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
John Mannion
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in New York's district 22
decided in the:
general
they said:
John Mannion
days before the vote when called:
18
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsOct 17, 2024
“We still have... We have 202 races favoring, Democrats, 207 favoring Republicans.”
Miss · 35Scored 35a naive guess scored 90-56.1 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2024
party:
Republican
seats after:
220
skill:
−56.1
topic:
elections
what happened:
220
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2024-house
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
35
baseline:
90
they said:
207
days before the vote when called:
18
difficulty:
1.02
seats before:
222
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the naive guess said:
222
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 17, 2024
“I think New York seventeen is definitely a race that fits in that category... now it's at a point where it looks like Republicans are at least the slight favorite, to hold it.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-ny-17
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
at least the slight favorite, to hold it
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Mike Lawler
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in New York's district 17
decided in the:
general
they said:
Mike Lawler
days before the vote when called:
18
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 17, 2024
“We have we have her in lean d, which is probably the one that Republicans disagree with the most out of all of our ratings.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-oh-09
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
lean d
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Marcy Kaptur
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Ohio's district 9
decided in the:
general
they said:
Marcy Kaptur
days before the vote when called:
18
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 17, 2024
“We just moved that race to solid Democratic, and you guys still have it at lean Democratic... So I do think this is a race that probably should move on our end.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-or-06
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
lean Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Andrea Salinas
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Oregon's district 6
decided in the:
general
they said:
Andrea Salinas
days before the vote when called:
18
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Control of CongressOct 17, 2024
“And so I think if you... If you're just, like, dividing it down the middle, it's like, I I think you can probably say that maybe Republicans have the slightest of edges, but it is very, very close.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
in their words:
maybe Republicans have the slightest of edges
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2024-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
18
difficulty:
1.02
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
who controlled it before:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.