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Ed Yardeni · Yardeni QuickTakes · Oct 31
The monthly change in payrolls at 55,000 for October 2026
“We expect a stronger payroll gain than the consensus, of approximately 55,000.”
Waiting
Jobs Predictions: Forecasters’ Calls vs. the Data
Every call on this we have on file from a named forecaster, set on the government’s own figures. We make no forecast of our own; each call is graded on the first figure reported for its period.
Unemployment4.1%October
Jobs added165,000October
Job openings7.5 millionSeptember
Calls on file1From 1 forecaster · none graded yet
The calls, on the figures
Unemployment rateA numbered call, keyed to the list belowStill to come
From the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as currently published. Calls are graded on the first figure reported, which can differ from a later revision.
Calls on file
Soonest due firstHow these calls are graded
A call with a number is scored on how far the first reported figure lands from it. A call that names only a direction is right or wrong against the figure on the day it was made. A call with no date is given twelve months and marked “period assumed”.
The full methodMissedTakes reconciles interpretations of published predictions against publicly-available actuals. Nothing on this site is intended as investment, financial, or tax advice and no past performance should be interpreted as an indicator of future performance. Each figure is the result of analyzing output from the agencies named with grades, and grades are corrected to the best of our ability when figures are changed. Grades evaluate predictions, not the people who made them. How we grade