1
Tom Graff · Kiplinger: Investing · Nov 5
At least 2 Fed hikes from January 2027 to June 2027
“and probably at least two to three more times in the first half of 2027”
Due Jun 30, 2027
Interest Rate Predictions: Forecasters’ Calls vs. the Data
Every call on this we have on file from a named forecaster, set on the government’s own figures. We make no forecast of our own; each call is graded on the first figure reported for its period.
Fed funds target3.75–4.00%Since September 17
2-year Treasury4.88%November 13
10-year Treasury5.15%November 13
Calls on file7From 4 forecasters · none graded yet
The calls, on the figures
Fed funds target (upper bound)10-year Treasury yieldA numbered call, keyed to the list belowStill to come
Target range and effective rate from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; yields from the US Treasury. Calls are graded on the first figure reported, which can differ from a later revision.
Calls on file
Soonest due first2
Larry Holzenthaler · Kiplinger: Investing · Nov 5
The 3-month Treasury yield higher than on the day of the call, a year later (period assumed)
“the direction of rates is clearly higher both at the front end and likely further out the yield curve as well”
Due Nov 5, 2027
3
Larry Holzenthaler · Kiplinger: Investing · Nov 5
The 10-year Treasury yield higher than on the day of the call, a year later (period assumed)
“the direction of rates is clearly higher both at the front end and likely further out the yield curve as well”
Due Nov 5, 2027
4
Joseph Brusuelas · RSM Real Economy · Nov 9
The 10-year Treasury yield higher than on the day of the call, a year later (period assumed)
“Put simply, the growing budget deficit and rising inflation are likely to continue pushing up interest rates.”
Due Nov 9, 2027
5
Joseph Brusuelas · RSM Real Economy · Nov 10
The Fed’s target rate higher than on the day of the call, a year later (period assumed)
“core inflation… remained elevated and implies that further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve are on the way”
Due Nov 10, 2027
6
Thomas Garretson, CFA · RBC Wealth Management Insights · Oct 30
The Fed’s target rate higher than on the day of the call, at the end of 2027
“a rate hike at the December meeting followed by further hikes in 2027”
Due Dec 31, 2027
7
Joseph Brusuelas · RSM Real Economy · Nov 11
The 10-year Treasury yield between 4.90% and 5.40% at the end of 2027
“our 2027 year-ahead forecast on the 10-year Treasury yield, which should stand at 5.1% properly measured and which we forecast will trade in a range between 4.9% and 5.4% next year”
Due Dec 31, 2027
How these calls are graded
A call with a number is scored on how far the first reported figure lands from it. A call that names only a direction is right or wrong against the figure on the day it was made. A call with no date is given twelve months and marked “period assumed”.
The full methodMissedTakes reconciles interpretations of published predictions against publicly-available actuals. Nothing on this site is intended as investment, financial, or tax advice and no past performance should be interpreted as an indicator of future performance. Each figure is the result of analyzing output from the agencies named with grades, and grades are corrected to the best of our ability when figures are changed. Grades evaluate predictions, not the people who made them. How we grade