Money desk
Economy Predictions: Who Called It
What named economists, strategists and firms have published about the Fed, inflation, jobs and markets, gathered in one place and graded once the answer is in. We make no forecasts of our own.
Next on the calendar · The Fed, December 8–9
What 15 forecasters are calling for December
16 calls on file from published notes and interviews. The Fed’s target range going in is 3.75% to 4.00%. Every call so far is for a hike.
Waiting to be graded
See every call and who made it →How these calls are graded
The day after the meeting, each call is checked against the target range the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes. A call that names a size is scored on how close it came; one that names only a direction is scored on the direction.
Calls stay on file as published. A forecaster who repeats a call is counted once, on the first.
Coming due
By the date each call can be graded- Dec 9Fed decision, December meeting16 calls
- Dec 31S&P 500 level1 call
- By aboutJan 20Inflation figures (after the BLS release)2 calls
- Jan 27Fed decision, January meeting1 call
- Jun 2027The Fed’s path; S&P 500 level2 calls
- Nov 2027Direction of rates; Direction of stocks5 calls
- By aboutDec 2027Direction of rates; Direction of inflation (after the BLS release); Rate levels3 calls
- By aboutFeb 2028Growth figures (after the BEA release)1 call
The data the calls are graded on
Last 24 monthsFrom the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the US Treasury.
Forecasters
Too early to rankA leaderboard opens once forecasters have enough graded calls to compare fairly. Until then, here is everyone with a call on file, and where we read them.
- Joseph BrusuelasRSM Real Economy6 calls
- Ed YardeniYardeni QuickTakes4 calls
- Claudia SahmStay-At-Home Macro (Claudia Sahm)2 calls
- David PayneKiplinger: Investing2 calls
- Larry HolzenthalerKiplinger: Investing2 calls
- Michael FeroliJ.P. Morgan Global Research2 calls
- Thomas Garretson, CFARBC Wealth Management Insights2 calls
- Tom GraffKiplinger: Investing2 calls
- Chris ZaccarelliKiplinger: Investing1 call
- Clark BellinKiplinger: Investing1 call
- Eugenio J. AlemánKiplinger: Investing1 call
- Gregory DacoFox Business: Economy1 call
- Jeff SchulzeKiplinger: Investing1 call
- Kelly BogdanovaRBC Wealth Management Insights1 call
- Lindsay RosnerKiplinger: Investing1 call
- Michael CasperKiplinger: Investing1 call
- Skyler WeinandKiplinger: Investing1 call
- Thomas WuKiplinger: Investing1 call
MissedTakes reconciles interpretations of published predictions against publicly-available actuals. Nothing on this site is intended as investment, financial, or tax advice and no past performance should be interpreted as an indicator of future performance. Each figure is the result of analyzing output from the agencies named with grades, and grades are corrected to the best of our ability when figures are changed. Grades evaluate predictions, not the people who made them. How we grade