Is Steve Deace accurate? Across 29 graded calls in 8 articles, Steve Deace scores 95.06% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 76.26, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
95.06%
Accuracy
How often they were right.
76.26
MissedTakes Score
Versus a naive guess. 0 means no better.
29
Graded calls
across 8 articles. 6 more not yet settled.
Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.
100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.
What they call, and how it goes
The record split by kind of claim — five graded calls minimum before a kind shows here. A pundit can be sharp on drafts and ordinary on game picks, and averaging that away is how a number stops meaning anything.
“In in 2016, Trump won with 46% of the popular vote because he won the electoral college. Do you guys believe he... Give me an over under. Does he go over or under that in the popular vote here today in this election? Over. Over. I I I think it's an easy over.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 98+2 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
2
topic:
elections
what happened:
49.8
in their words:
an easy over 46% of the popular vote
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
vote_share
whose number:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
98
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
“I would not be concerned about West Virginia. There's no chance the state will swing blue.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-wv
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in West Virginia
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
“I could give you all the the data and trends why I believe we're gonna win tomorrow. I do think Trump is going to win. I think we're gonna win tomorrow.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-pa
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
“On the senate side, I actually believe now 52 is the low number that Republicans will end up with.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2024-senate
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
who controlled it before:
Democratic
“I think McCormick will also win, and and therefore, that'll get Republicans.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-pa
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Dave McCormick
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Dave McCormick
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
“you also gave him Arizona and Nevada. Is that correct? Yes. I did.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-nv
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
“And I think the Republicans end up with 54 US senators.”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 20+60 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2024
party:
Republican
seats after:
53
skill:
60
topic:
elections
what happened:
53
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2024-senate
what they counted:
total_seats
accuracy:
80
baseline:
20
they said:
54
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
seats before:
49
the naive guess:
“I tried to take a state that I do think that Trump is trending well in and have it go blue just based off of fortification that exists. And that state is my former home state of Michigan... I think Michigan will hold firm”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president-mi
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Michigan
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
“297 to 241, I do believe for the first time since 1988, the, the Rust Belt, Triumvirate will splinter and not all go the same way.”
Hit · 85Scored 85a naive guess scored 57+28 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
28
topic:
elections
what happened:
312
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
zero credit this far off:
100
what they counted:
electoral_votes
whose number:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
85
baseline:
57
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
they said:
297
days before the vote when called:
“I think Bernie Moreno's run a good campaign. And so between his campaign and Trump's coattails there, I think they will take that seat away from Sherrod Brown as well.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
“I know... I think we're gonna win, and I'm gonna be extremely happy. And I I know though just because of how mercurial he is, how mercurial some of the people he'll appoint will be, there are going to be days, you know, probably start in late January, where I'm going to come in here, alright, and pop a blood vessel.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skill
“so I think I think McCormick is gonna win in Penn...”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-pa
election year:
2024
skill:
101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Dave McCormick
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Dave McCormick
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
“Bernie Moreno has run a good enough campaign that I think he's gonna he's gonna beat Sherrod Brown”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-oh
election year:
2024
skill:
101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Bernard F. Moreno
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Ohio
decided in the:
general
they said:
Bernard F. Moreno
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
“At the top, I have Trump with 297 electoral college votes, Kamala with 241.”
Hit · 85Scored 85a naive guess scored 57+28.28 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
28.28
topic:
elections
what happened:
226
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
zero credit this far off:
100
what they counted:
electoral_votes
whose number:
Kamala Harris
accuracy:
85
baseline:
57
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
they said:
241
days before the vote when called:
“That's assuming you could... You're still gonna win Wisconsin then.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-wi
election year:
2024
skill:
101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Wisconsin
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
“you denied Trump the state of Michigan. ... So that is the state that I am I'm I'm giving them”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president-mi
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Michigan
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
“At the top, I have Trump with 297 electoral college votes, Kamala with 241.”
Hit · 85Scored 85a naive guess scored 57+28.28 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
28.28
topic:
elections
what happened:
312
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
zero credit this far off:
100
what they counted:
electoral_votes
whose number:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
85
baseline:
57
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
they said:
297
days before the vote when called:
“I believe that Trump is gonna sweep the Sun Belt, and and I think for the first time since 1988, the, the the Rust Belt, the big three Rust Belt states, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, will not all vote in mass.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-pa
election year:
2024
skill:
101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
“So I have Republicans finishing, with 54 US senators”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 20+60.6 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2024
party:
Republican
seats after:
53
skill:
60.6
topic:
elections
what happened:
53
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2024-senate
what they counted:
total_seats
accuracy:
80
baseline:
20
they said:
54
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
seats before:
49
the naive guess:
“since the the Wisconsin Republican candidate doesn't have as much baggage as as Carrie Lake does, I'll choose that one. But I think Republicans are gonna flip one of those”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-101 skill