Erick-Woods Erickson Flips on Ohio and Texas as the House Field Turns Unanimous for Democrats | MissedTakes Election Brief
Drafted by a language model from MissedTakes' graded data, then reviewed and approved by Ben Garves before publishing. How our posts are made
How did Erick-Woods Erickson's Senate calls change on Election Day?
Erick-Woods Erickson reversed himself on two Senate races the same day polls opened, moving off calls he made five weeks earlier. On September 30 he wrote he thought "the GOP is going to lose both North Carolina and Ohio" in a piece that day. On November 3 he changed course on Ohio, writing "I have thought the GOP would lose Ohio, but have become convinced they can save it," in a piece published Election Day, and now has Jon Husted winning the special election there.
He also reversed Texas, moving to the opposite pick. On September 30 he wrote "I think the GOP keeps Texas." By November 3 he had changed that call too: "I expect the GOP will lose North Carolina and, here at the end based on early voting data, Texas... my optimism to salvage the seat was misguided." He now has James Talarico winning. Erickson carries 68 graded calls from the last cycle across 24 articles, with 79.8 accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 45.9, a score above zero meaning his calls beat picking whichever party was favored.
Where does the field stand on who controls the House?
The field calling House control has grown to 43 pundits, up from 17 four weeks ago, and every one of them, forecasters and talkers alike, picks Democratic. The two pundits we track as forecasters on this question both say Democratic, including G. Elliott Morris, who wrote on November 3 that Democrats have an "8-in-10 chance of winning majorities in both chambers." All 41 talkers in the field agree on the winning party, even where they differ sharply on the margin.
That margin disagreement shows up in the seat-count calls pundits have attached to their House picks:
| Pundit | Call | Last-cycle accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| Erick-Woods Erickson | Republicans "lose around 25 seats" | 79.8 (68 graded calls) |
| Bill Kristol | Democrats gain "30 seats or something" | 0 (2 graded calls) |
| Tim Miller | Democrats reach 240 total seats | 40.3 (13 graded calls) |
| Anthony Salvanto | Democrats reach 229 total seats | 85 (2 graded calls) |
| Harry Enten | Democrats end up with "227 to 240" seats | 100 (2 graded calls) |
How has the Senate control call shifted?
Senate control has grown from 14 pundits four weeks ago to 29 today, and the party split has barely moved: 15 now say Republican, 14 say Democratic, compared with 9-5 Republican a month ago.
On the record
We've tracked 799 calls this cycle from 107 pundits, including 195 made in the past week and 66 since our last brief. None carry a graded result yet; polls close tonight. The full set sits on the Election leaderboard and the US Elections hub.