Is Erick-Woods Erickson accurate? Across 28 graded calls in 10 articles, Erick-Woods Erickson scores 95.5% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 68.71, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a limited sample, under thirty graded articles, so treat it with caution.
95.5%
Accuracy
How often they were right.
68.71
MissedTakes Score
Versus a naive guess. 0 means no better.
28
Graded calls
across 10 articles. 12 more not yet settled.
A limited sample — under 30 graded articles.
100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.
“I expect the GOP could see its margin go up to 225 or 230.”
Close · 75Scored 75a naive guess scored 90-15 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2024
party:
Republican
seats after:
220
skill:
-15
topic:
elections
what happened:
220
in their words:
225 or 230
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
“At a minimum, the Republicans should pick up two seats, for majority control of the Senate.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2024-senate
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
who controlled it before:
Democratic
“The GOP presently has a narrow 220 to 212 margin. I expect the GOP could see its margin go up to 225 or 230.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
“But based on the trend lines of early voting and the behaviors of the campaigns, I think Trump still has the edge. Again, as I noted yesterday, he has many more paths to 270 votes than she does”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
“I don’t think a late shift to Harris will be enough though. I think enough voters are genuinely frustrated with the direction of the country that they’ll go with Trump.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
“In Florida, Republicans have outpaced Democrats by so much that if Florida were all in the Eastern time zone, the state would be called as soon as the polls close on Election Night. There's just no way for Democrats to overcome what is happening to them there.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
“So you can have Donald Trump now. His victory is your punishment for being a bunch of arrogrant, know-it-all pricks who lack the decency and humility to consider maybe Republicans sometimes have legitimate points”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skill
“Harris has decided to campaign in Texas, Florida, and Kentucky in the last thirteen days. She will not win those three states but might save some Democrats.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
“Instead, I find myself having to rein myself in from explicitly saying he has won thirteen days before the election.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
“Harris has decided to campaign in Texas, Florida, and Kentucky in the last thirteen days. She will not win those three states but might save some Democrats.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-tx
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Texas
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
“Harris has decided to campaign in Texas, Florida, and Kentucky in the last thirteen days. She will not win those three states but might save some Democrats.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-fl
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Florida
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
“In Nevada, a state I believe Harris will win, her polling is collapsing.”
“Harris and her team have decided to go to Texas, Kentucky, and Florida — three states she will not win.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-fl
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Florida
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
“Harris and her team have decided to go to Texas, Kentucky, and Florida — three states she will not win.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-tx
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Texas
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
“But this is not what a winning campaign does in the last twelve days of the campaign... Harris is giving up trying to win the White House... It signals the presidential race is all but over.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skill