Erick-Woods Erickson· Nov 3, 2026
Erickson expects a bad night for Republicans: they lose the Senate seats in North Carolina and Texas but hold the rest of the contested seats — Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Mississippi, South Carolina and Ohio — and keep Senate control, possibly even flipping Michigan. He believes the House is lost, with the GOP shedding roughly 25 seats.
“Still, I think we keep the Senate.”
published in writing · Erick Erickson newsletter (Substack) · read the original →
13 checkable claims — 10 race winners, 2 control of congress and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.
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13 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Seat CountsNov 3, 2026
“I expect Republicans to lose around 25 seats.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersNov 3, 2026
“Republicans worried they would lose Senate races in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Texas... I expect Republicans to hold on to the rest”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersNov 3, 2026
“I expect Republicans to hold on to the rest and keep control of the United States Senate”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersNov 3, 2026
“I have thought the GOP would lose Ohio, but have become convinced they can save it.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Control of CongressNov 3, 2026
“The House, I believe, is lost. I expect Republicans to lose around 25 seats.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersNov 3, 2026
“Many, many people with more knowledge of the situation tell me Kansas is toast for the GOP. I'll believe it when I see it.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersNov 3, 2026
“I expect Republicans to hold on to the rest and keep control of the United States Senate”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersNov 3, 2026
“I expect Republicans to hold on to the rest and keep control of the United States Senate”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Control of CongressNov 3, 2026
“I expect Republicans to hold on to the rest and keep control of the United States Senate... Still, I think we keep the Senate.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersNov 3, 2026
“This year, I expect the GOP will lose North Carolina and, here at the end based on early voting data, Texas”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersNov 3, 2026
“I expect Republicans to hold on to the rest and keep control of the United States Senate”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersNov 3, 2026
“I would not be surprised if they are able to flip the Michigan Senate seat.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersNov 3, 2026
“I expect the GOP will lose North Carolina and, here at the end based on early voting data, Texas... my optimism to salvage the seat was misguided.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Jim GeraghtyRace WinnersMiss · 0Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersHit · 100Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio.
- Tom BevanRace WinnersHit · 100Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia.
- Dennis PragerRace WinnersMiss · 0Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersMiss · 0Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win.
- Matt ContinettiRace WinnersHit · 100Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida.