Erick-Woods Erickson· Sep 30, 2026
Erickson predicts Democrats will win control of the House while Republicans hold the Senate with a reduced majority, losing the North Carolina and Ohio Senate seats, picking up Michigan, and keeping Texas.
“But I do think enough of them will still come home to the GOP that the Senate stays in Republican hands.”
published in writing · Erick Erickson newsletter (Substack) · read the original →
6 checkable claims — 4 race winners and 2 chamber control — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.
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6 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Chamber ControlSep 30, 2026
“But I do think enough of them will still come home to the GOP that the Senate stays in Republican hands.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersSep 30, 2026
“Right now, I think the GOP is going to lose both North Carolina and Ohio”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersSep 30, 2026
“Right now, I think the GOP is going to lose both North Carolina and Ohio”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Chamber ControlSep 30, 2026
“The United States House of Representatives is gone for the GOP... The House is going to flip and could just as easily flip back in two years.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersSep 30, 2026
“but I think they'll pick up Michigan”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersSep 30, 2026
“I think the GOP keeps Texas.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Carl CannonRace WinnersHit · 100Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio.
- Lanny DavisRace WinnersMiss · 0Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency.
- Sam WangRace WinnersMiss · 0Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined.
- Steve DeaceRace WinnersHit · 100On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%.
- Henry OlsenRace WinnersHit · 100Olsen's final call: Harris narrowly wins the national popular vote while Trump wins the electoral college 297-241, taking six of the seven swing states, with Michigan the one he is least likely to crack. He also forecast Republicans ending with 54-55 Senate seats and holding a narrow House majority.
- Tim MillerRace WinnersMiss · 0Miller predicted Kamala Harris would hold the blue wall states and Nevada and win a narrow Electoral College victory with 276 electoral votes, while also saying Florida and Texas would stay out of reach for Democrats.