Loading…
Loading…
Writes at Tangle (podcast)
Across 6 graded calls in 2 articles, Ari Weitzman scores 20% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 20.4, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.
100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
They hedged 55% of their claims — a “probably”, a “could”, a “wouldn’t be surprised”.
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.
“Another possibility is that Republicans flip West Virginia, which is kind of a given.”
“And I think the same about Michigan with the added caveat that I do think when we get to election day...”
“They end up flipping Montana, which is almost a given.”
“And based on that just straight read of the momentum in Nevada, that's why I think probably it's not gonna be enough to tip over the line for Trump.”
“I think it's fair to say it's more likely, but I think it's still probable Democrats carry Wisconsin.”
“I've sort of been harboring this, like, gut level hunch that it's gonna go for Harris... maybe the data's gonna start reaffirming this hunch that I have. I do think that that's gonna happen.”