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Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.
100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
hits
misses
Takes in each band
Everyone writing under this banner, pooled into the numbers above. Counted by article, with a paginated series counting once — the same rule used for an individual, from the published methodology.
1–16 of 16
15 / 16
graded
1 still pending
The GOP is virtually guaranteed to lose at least one Senate seat it currently holds.
I predicted that Trump would win the election but lose Pennsylvania.
Based on information I had two weeks ago, I predicted that Trump would win the election but lose Pennsylvania... I'm also not feeling so moved to abandon my initial call. I still think Trump just has more paths to the presidency electorally and so I'm hanging tight for the final forty eight hours.
Further, the most important economic indicator of all, the right track, wrong track poll favors a Trump victory.
And, again, I think he's going to win... including my own, given I picked Trump to win... a fairly likely outcome here is that Kamala Harris wins Pennsylvania and loses the election.
I've made this prediction that Trump is going to lose Pennsylvania but win Michigan.
I've made this prediction that Trump is going to lose Pennsylvania but win Michigan... a fairly likely outcome here is that Kamala Harris wins Pennsylvania and loses the election.
one of my headline predictions was that Vice President Kamala Harris would win Pennsylvania but lose the election
Number three, I think Trump is going to win.
and that Republicans would come away with 53 seats in the Senate
I also argued that Trump had a path to winning in Michigan, that Democrats would win the House
It was a silly and reckless move from a campaign well positioned to win this election, but still often prone to getting in its own way.
Two Fridays ago, I shared my predictions for the twenty twenty four election. In that addition, I predicted Harris was on track to lose Michigan... Democratic representative Alyssa Slotkin's warning that Harris was underwater in internal polling solidified my sense that she's going to lose this state. Nothing that's happened since has changed my mind about that prediction.
Democratic pollster Simon Rosenberg said the election is still far more likely to break for Harris than Trump... I still think we are where I have believed we have been for weeks now, favored to win.
They're pulling ahead of Republicans battleground senate races, but will likely lose their majority because of how many seats they're defending.
These are all significant and critical advantages, which is why I think Trump will ultimately win the election.