Ari Weitzman· Oct 21, 2024

Weitzman disagreed with Saul on three swing states, saying Democrats probably carry Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada at the presidential level. On the Senate, he treated Republican pickups in West Virginia and Montana as near-certain.

“I think it's still probable Democrats carry Wisconsin.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Tangle (podcast) · read the original →

5 checkable claims — 5 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 5 have settled, averaging 40 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

5 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersOct 21, 2024
“Another possibility is that Republicans flip West Virginia, which is kind of a given.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-wv
election year:
2024
skill:
102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Independent
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Jim Justice
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in West Virginia
decided in the:
general
they said:
Jim Justice
days before the vote when called:
14
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 21, 2024
“And I think the same about Michigan with the added caveat that I do think when we get to election day...”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president-mi
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Michigan
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
14
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 21, 2024
“They end up flipping Montana, which is almost a given.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-mt
election year:
2024
skill:
102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Tim Sheehy
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana
decided in the:
general
they said:
Tim Sheehy
days before the vote when called:
14
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 21, 2024
“And based on that just straight read of the momentum in Nevada, that's why I think probably it's not gonna be enough to tip over the line for Trump.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president-nv
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
14
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 21, 2024
“I think it's fair to say it's more likely, but I think it's still probable Democrats carry Wisconsin.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president-wi
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Wisconsin
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
14
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.