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Writes at Richard Hanania's Newsletter
Across 6 graded calls in 2 articles, Richard Hanania scores 62.5% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 34.67, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.
100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
They hedged 11.11% of their claims — a “probably”, a “could”, a “wouldn’t be surprised”.
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.
“based on vibes and perhaps my own wishful thinking, I'm going to give Allred a 30% chance of pulling off the upset”
“They are sure to flip West Virginia, which would put them at 50 seats.”
“If not, Montana looks overwhelmingly likely to flip too.”
“I still can’t believe Pennsylvania will choose Fetterman over Oz... I’ll do the same here, and call Pennsylvania for Oz.”
“I am more confident than I had previously been that they should win both the House and Senate. I’d put the House at 90%, and the Senate at around 65%.”
“I am more confident than I had previously been that they should win both the House and Senate. I’d put the House at 90%, and the Senate at around 65%.”