Richard Hanania· Oct 31, 2022

Hanania argues that historical midterm base rates plus a likely pro-Democratic polling bias mean Republicans should win both chambers, putting the House at 90% and the Senate at about 65%. He also makes a gut call that Mehmet Oz will beat John Fetterman in Pennsylvania's Senate race.

“I am more confident than I had previously been that they should win both the House and Senate. I’d put the House at 90%, and the Senate at around 65%.”

published in writing · Richard Hanania's Newsletter · read the original →

3 checkable claims — 2 control of congress and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 3 have settled, averaging 33.3 out of 100, against 33.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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3 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersOct 31, 2022
“I still can’t believe Pennsylvania will choose Fetterman over Oz... I’ll do the same here, and call Pennsylvania for Oz.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-pa
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
John K. Fetterman
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Mehmet Oz
days before the vote when called:
7
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Control of CongressOct 31, 2022
“I am more confident than I had previously been that they should win both the House and Senate. I’d put the House at 90%, and the Senate at around 65%.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2022
skill:
101
topic:
elections
in their words:
I’d put the House at 90%
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
7
difficulty:
1.01
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Control of CongressOct 31, 2022
“I am more confident than I had previously been that they should win both the House and Senate. I’d put the House at 90%, and the Senate at around 65%.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-101 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
election year:
2022
skill:
−101
topic:
elections
in their words:
the Senate at around 65%
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
who controls it:
Democratic
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
7
difficulty:
1.01
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?

More control of congress

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.