Richard Hanania· Oct 8, 2024
Hanania argues Republicans are well positioned in the Senate map, calling a West Virginia flip certain and a Montana flip overwhelmingly likely, while treating Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan as up for grabs. He thinks Colin Allred is underpriced against Ted Cruz in Texas but still gives Allred only a 30% chance, implying Cruz holds the seat.
“They are sure to flip West Virginia, which would put them at 50 seats.”
published in writing · Richard Hanania's Newsletter · read the original →
3 checkable claims — 3 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 3 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 33.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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3 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race WinnersOct 8, 2024
“based on vibes and perhaps my own wishful thinking, I'm going to give Allred a 30% chance of pulling off the upset”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-senate-tx
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-senate
- who won:
- Ted Cruz
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. Senate election in Texas
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Ted Cruz
- days before the vote when called:
- 27
- difficulty:
- 1.04
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersOct 8, 2024
“They are sure to flip West Virginia, which would put them at 50 seats.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+104 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-senate-wv
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 104
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Independent
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-senate
- who won:
- Jim Justice
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. Senate election in West Virginia
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Jim Justice
- days before the vote when called:
- 27
- difficulty:
- 1.04
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersOct 8, 2024
“If not, Montana looks overwhelmingly likely to flip too.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+104 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-senate-mt
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 104
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- in their words:
- overwhelmingly likely to flip
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-senate
- who won:
- Tim Sheehy
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Tim Sheehy
- days before the vote when called:
- 27
- difficulty:
- 1.04
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Jim GeraghtyRace WinnersMiss · 0Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersHit · 100Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio.
- Tom BevanRace WinnersHit · 100Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia.
- Dennis PragerRace WinnersMiss · 0Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersMiss · 0Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win.
- Matt ContinettiRace WinnersHit · 100Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida.