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Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.
100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
hits
misses
Takes in each band
Everyone writing under this banner, pooled into the numbers above. Counted by article, with a paginated series counting once — the same rule used for an individual, from the published methodology.
1–6 of 6
6 / 6
graded
0 still pending
based on vibes and perhaps my own wishful thinking, I'm going to give Allred a 30% chance of pulling off the upset
They are sure to flip West Virginia, which would put them at 50 seats.
If not, Montana looks overwhelmingly likely to flip too.
I still can’t believe Pennsylvania will choose Fetterman over Oz... I’ll do the same here, and call Pennsylvania for Oz.
I am more confident than I had previously been that they should win both the House and Senate. I’d put the House at 90%, and the Senate at around 65%.
I am more confident than I had previously been that they should win both the House and Senate. I’d put the House at 90%, and the Senate at around 65%.