Ed Yardeni · Yardeni QuickTakes · Nov 11
“Fed Likely To Hike By 50bps In December … we predicted a 50bps hike in December.”
Due Dec 9
December 2026 Fed Decision: What Forecasters Are Calling
The Federal Open Market Committee meets December 8–9. Here is every call on this meeting we have found from a named forecaster, in their own words, with a link to where they said it. We make no forecast of our own; each call is graded once the decision is in.
Target range going in3.75–4.00%Since September 17
Calls on file16From 15 forecasters
Calling a hike16Hold: 0 · Cut: 0
The decisionDec 92:00 p.m. Eastern
The calls at a glance
A hike of half a point1
A hike of a quarter point6
A hike, size not given9
Hold0No calls
A cut0No calls
Waiting to be graded
A hike of half a point
1 callA hike of a quarter point
6 callsClaudia Sahm · Stay-At-Home Macro (Claudia Sahm) · Nov 2
“Gradualism (unless something breaks) should translate into a quarter-point hike in December, a hold in January”
Due Dec 9
Michael Feroli · J.P. Morgan Global Research · Nov 3
“Looking ahead, J.P. Morgan Global Research forecasts a quarter-point increase in December. … ‘We continue to expect a hike at the December FOMC meeting.’”
Due Dec 9
Eugenio J. Alemán · Kiplinger: Investing · Nov 5
“We expect the Fed to increase the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in December.”
Due Dec 9
Tom Graff · Kiplinger: Investing · Nov 5
“I see the Fed hiking 25 bps in December”
Due Dec 9
Joseph Brusuelas · RSM Real Economy · Nov 10
“a 25-basis point rate hike by the Fed is a near certainty next month… we think that a December rate increase is baked in the cake”
Due Dec 9
Michael Casper · Kiplinger: Investing · Nov 10
“Casper believes the Fed will raise rates by a quarter-percentage point, ‘given the recent market volatility and drop in oil.’”
Said twice in the same article. Counted once.
Due Dec 9
A hike, size not given
9 callsThomas Garretson, CFA · RBC Wealth Management Insights · Oct 30
“We still think economic data will take precedence in the Fed's decision making and that will support a rate hike at the December meeting”
Due Dec 9
Clark Bellin · Kiplinger: Investing · Nov 5
“we would still expect a December rate hike”
Due Dec 9
Michael Feroli · J.P. Morgan Global Research · Nov 6
“Chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli reiterated his forecast that the Fed will hike once more at its December meeting.”
Due Dec 9
Jeff Schulze · Kiplinger: Investing · Nov 9
“Today's hot October core CPI print leaves a December rate hike all but signed, sealed and delivered.”
Due Dec 9
Lindsay Rosner · Kiplinger: Investing · Nov 9
“A December hike is our firm base case despite wider AI jitters”
Due Dec 9
Skyler Weinand · Kiplinger: Investing · Nov 9
“which sets the stage for another rate hike in December, as it's clear the Federal Reserve can't ignore the obvious uptick in the inflation data”
Due Dec 9
Chris Zaccarelli · Kiplinger: Investing · Nov 9
“Given the higher-than-desired inflation, it is even more likely now that the Fed will raise rates in December.”
Due Dec 9
Thomas Wu · Kiplinger: Investing · Nov 9
“A third straight hot core reading, at 0.3%, makes a December hike very hard to avoid. The expected hike will push up funding costs across the system”
Due Dec 9
Gregory Daco · Fox Business: Economy · Nov 10
“‘The hotter and broader inflation report likely seals the deal for a Fed rate hike in December.’ … The Federal Reserve is set to hold its next monetary policy meeting on Dec. 8-9”
Due Dec 9
Hold
0 callsNo calls on file for this outcome.
A cut
0 callsNo calls on file for this outcome.
How these calls are graded
Each call is checked against the change in the Fed’s target range, as the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes it. A call that names a size is scored on how close it came: a quarter point off scores 50, half a point off scores 0. A call that names only a direction is right or wrong. A forecaster who repeats a call is counted once.
The full methodMissing a call?
If a named forecaster published a call on this meeting and it isn’t here, send us the link. We add calls made before the meeting, never after.
Send us a callMissedTakes reconciles interpretations of published predictions against publicly-available actuals. Nothing on this site is intended as investment, financial, or tax advice and no past performance should be interpreted as an indicator of future performance. Each figure is the result of analyzing output from the agencies named with grades, and grades are corrected to the best of our ability when figures are changed. Grades evaluate predictions, not the people who made them. How we grade