Claudia Sahm · Stay-At-Home Macro (Claudia Sahm) · Nov 2
“a quarter-point hike in December, a hold in January”
Due Jan 27, 2027
January 2027 Fed Decision: What Forecasters Are Calling
The Federal Open Market Committee meets January 26–27. Here is every call on this meeting we have found from a named forecaster, in their own words, with a link to where they said it. We make no forecast of our own; each call is graded once the decision is in.
Target range going inNot known yetSet at the December meeting
Calls on file1From 1 forecaster
Calling a hike0Hold: 1 · Cut: 0
The decisionJan 272:00 p.m. Eastern
The calls at a glance
A hike0No calls
Hold1
A cut0No calls
Waiting to be graded
A hike
0 callsNo calls on file for this outcome.
Hold
1 callA cut
0 callsNo calls on file for this outcome.
How these calls are graded
Each call is checked against the change in the Fed’s target range, as the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes it. A call that names a size is scored on how close it came: a quarter point off scores 50, half a point off scores 0. A call that names only a direction is right or wrong. A forecaster who repeats a call is counted once.
The full methodMissing a call?
If a named forecaster published a call on this meeting and it isn’t here, send us the link. We add calls made before the meeting, never after.
Send us a callMissedTakes reconciles interpretations of published predictions against publicly-available actuals. Nothing on this site is intended as investment, financial, or tax advice and no past performance should be interpreted as an indicator of future performance. Each figure is the result of analyzing output from the agencies named with grades, and grades are corrected to the best of our ability when figures are changed. Grades evaluate predictions, not the people who made them. How we grade