Pat Fitzmaurice· Oct 2, 2026
Fitzmaurice picked Jacksonville to edge Cincinnati in a one-point nail-biter, took the Saints over the Falcons on Monday night, pegged Jeremiah Love as an RB11 for the rest of the season, and expected several banged-up players to sit out Week 4.
“I'll say Duvall pulls this one out in a nail biter. 24 to 23 comes down to the last possession.”
said on air or in an interview · FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast) · read the original →
5 checkable claims — 3 availability calls, 1 game outcome pick and 1 score prediction — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
2 of 5 have settled so far, averaging 45.2 out of 100, against 19.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
The games in this take
- Jaguars at Bengals 32 calls
- Falcons at Saints 34 calls
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
- Score PredictionsJacksonville JaguarsOct 2, 2026
Jacksonville Jaguars 24 — Bengals 23
“I'll say Duvall pulls this one out in a nail biter. 24 to 23 comes down to the last possession.”
Hit · 90Scored 90.48a naive guess scored 39.34+93.58 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 22-17
- skill:
- 93.58
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 90.48
- baseline:
- 39.34
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- naive home margin:
- 0.52
- predicted margin:
- 1
Closing line (Oct 4): Bengals by 2.5, total 51.5 · this 24–23 calls a Jaguars win (by 1; the line gave the Jaguars 43%) and fewer points (47).
- Game Outcome PicksNew Orleans SaintsOct 2, 2026
New Orleans Saints to beat Falcons
“I think the Saints are the class of the NFC South and plus this is going to be kind of an emotional night for them (answering who he likes to win Falcons at Saints)”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- ATL
- score:
- 45-24
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NO
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NO
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 15
Closing line (Oct 5): Saints by 1.5 · a toss-up, Falcons 48%, Saints 52%.
“rookie right tackle Monroe Freeling has a concussion, so he probably won't play (Week 4 Lions at Panthers)”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
“looks like there's a good chance rashad white misses this game with the shoulder injury (Week 4 Colts at Commanders)”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
“Seems pretty unlikely plays. (on Devonta Smith for Week 4 vs. the Rams)”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Derek BrownGame Outcome Picks · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 0Brown forecast a Jaguars shootout win in Cincinnati, took the Saints to beat the Falcons on Monday night, ranked Jeremiah Love as an RB15 rest-of-season (while saying he'd move up), and expected Jacoby Brissett to remain Arizona's quarterback for the year and Jalen Wright to be back in Miami's backfield.
- Jeff KerrRoster Spot Calls · Carson SteeleHit · 100Kerr argues Joshua Weru making the 53-man roster is an overreaction, predicts Carson Steele has earned a roster spot (possibly beating out Cameron Latu for the fullback job), says Tanner McKee should and will be the QB2 over Andy Dalton by Week 1, and expects Darius Cooper to win the final receiver spot over Elijah Moore though he isn't a lock.
- Damonza ByrdSeason Win Totals · Jacksonville JaguarsHit · 100Nick Wright's co-host picks the Jaguars over as his favorite of the six over bets and calls the Baltimore/Buffalo division-winner parlay a safe one.
- Gregg RosenthalSeason Win Totals · Jacksonville JaguarsHit · 100Rosenthal's Week 1 picks: the Giants win at Washington, the Lions beat the Packers, and the Jaguars beat the Panthers; he also likes the Jets over the Steelers and the Dolphins over the Colts, and expects Jacksonville to clear 7.5 wins.
- Nick WrightSeason Win Totals · Jacksonville JaguarsHit · 100In part two of his gambling show, Nick Wright ran through NFC (and recapped AFC) win-total picks, division winners and make/miss-the-playoffs bets, backing the Chiefs, Jaguars, Raiders, Bears, Buccaneers and Falcons to clear their totals while predicting Commanders, Bucs and Rams division titles.
- Gregg RosenthalSeason Win Totals · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 0Rosenthal's under picks and a few freebie leans: Colts under 7.5 (possibly the worst team), Commanders under 9.5, Saints under 5.5 (possibly 2-15), Bears under 8.5, plus stated likes on Dolphins under 8.5, Giants over 5.5 and Ravens over 11.5.
More availability calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Jason La CanforaAvailability Calls · Lamar JacksonPendingLa Canfora writes that Lamar Jackson is out for the Ravens' Sunday night game against Atlanta and may miss the following week as well, with Tyler 'Snoop' Huntley taking over at quarterback. He also doubts Marvin Harrison Jr. will become the Ravens' complementary downfield threat.
- Chad JensenAvailability Calls · Ladd McConkeyPendingJensen expects Chargers receiver Ladd McConkey, listed as questionable with a foot injury after not practicing all week, to sit out Sunday's game against Denver.
- Patricia TrainaAvailability Calls · Jihad WardPendingWith Chauncey Golston placed on IR, Traina expects newly signed Jihad Ward to be active against Washington and absorb a significant defensive role in Golston's place.
- Donnie DruinAvailability Calls · Walter NolenPendingDruin reads the Cardinals' Saturday roster moves as an indication that defensive lineman Walter Nolen III, listed questionable with a calf injury, is expected to be available for Sunday's Week 5 game against the Lions, and that linebacker Karson Sharar should also be good to go.
- Bill HuberAvailability Calls · Mekhi BectonPendingHuber expects the Packers to beat the Bears on Sunday, projects Green Bay's offensive line starters with Becton inactive, and says Becton's Packers debut will be delayed another week. He also lays out Chicago's backfield pecking order with Monangai out.
- Blaine GrisakAvailability Calls · Aaron DonaldPendingGrisak suggests the Rams and Bills could meet in the Super Bowl, implying both reach the title game. Otherwise the piece is largely descriptive and quotes from coaches and players.