Texans: The Preseason Super Bowl Pick Looks Rough, But the Comeback Calls Are Hitting | MissedTakes Daily
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How bad does the preseason Super Bowl pick on the Texans look now?
Daniel Jeremiah's preseason pick of the Texans to win the Super Bowl is the roughest bet on this club so far. Houston sits 2-4 this season after making the playoffs at 12-5 a year ago, and Jeremiah said as much himself on air: "it's number two for the surprises because I picked them to win the dang Super Bowl. Houston Texans are two and four" (Oct. 22). The season hasn't settled that pick yet, but the gap between the forecast and the record is already wide.
It fits a run of season-long Texans calls that haven't held up. Among graded picks on the Texans winning the AFC South, only 15% have hit, 20 graded calls out of 66 made. Picks on Houston reaching the conference championship have missed all 5 graded so far. Playoff-berth picks are the exception: 92.9% accurate across 14 graded calls, though even those carry a slightly negative skill score (-14.29), meaning backing Houston to still make the playoffs hasn't beaten the naive call by much.
Which recent picks on Houston actually hit?
Pundits who backed Houston in its last two games got rewarded after the Texans opened 0-4. Houston beat the Titans 26-3 in Week 5 and the Jaguars 34-31 in Week 6 in London, and nearly everyone who called either game correctly scored perfect accuracy. Chris Broussard, John Middlekauff, Conor Orr, Albert Breer and Connor Rogers each took Houston straight-up in one of those two games and graded 100 accurate. Jordan Dajani, writing for CBS Sports, called Houston's 21-18 upset of Jacksonville before it happened, across two separate pieces, and John Breech also had Houston winning that game, projecting a 20-17 final. Score predictions on Texans games have fared a bit better than winner picks overall, grading 54.4% accurate on average across 52 graded calls.
That two-game run is the exception, not the pattern elsewhere this season: game-outcome picks on the Texans have only a 40.3% average accuracy across 96 graded calls, out of 116 made total.
Who called the Marvin Harrison Jr. trade correctly?
Three pundits named Houston as Marvin Harrison Jr.'s landing spot before the move closed. Mike Kadlick, Donnie Druin (who filed the pick twice, a week apart) and Jared Koch all pointed to the Texans, and each call graded 100 accurate once the trade went through. Trade and signing calls about Houston are 100% accurate across the 7 graded this year, averaging a skill score of +181.86, well clear of just assuming a player stays put. The attention tracks: no Texans subject draws more coverage than Harrison, and receivers as a group account for more tracked Texans takes than any other position on the roster.
Whose Texans coverage holds up best?
Among pundits with at least five graded Texans calls, Rich Eisen's have been the most accurate at 81.8% across 11 graded calls, followed by Jared Koch at 75.0% across 12 graded calls out of the 91 Texans-related takes tracked from him, the most of anyone covering this club. At the other end, John Granato's Texans calls have graded 31.4% accurate across 11 graded calls.
| Pundit | Graded Texans calls | Accuracy | Skill score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rich Eisen | 11 | 81.8 | +36.91 |
| Jared Koch | 12 | 75.0 | +31.50 |
| JP Acosta | 6 | 70.7 | +44.17 |
| Jordan Dajani | 11 | 62.3 | +42.56 |
| Nick Wright | 8 | 57.6 | +41.20 |
| Mike Renner | 5 | 52.5 | +36.46 |
| Richard Sherman | 6 | 49.4 | +36.36 |
| Colin Cowherd | 11 | 43.9 | +0.69 |
| Kyle Crabbs | 9 | 42.1 | +37.40 |
| John Granato | 11 | 31.4 | +33.54 |
Koch's most recent calls sit in the same receiver room: on Oct. 19 he argued Nico Collins keeps the top job as Tank Dell returns, while Kayshon Boutte could slide as low as sixth on the depth chart. The season hasn't settled those yet, but they're exactly the kind of call that has built his volume.
What else moved around the league?
Pundits had 452 calls graded across the league this past week, most of them game-outcome picks (283) and score predictions (126), with roster-spot calls picking up too (24). Bryan DeArdo tops the overall leaderboard at 92.06% accuracy, though on a small sample of 21 graded calls so far, ahead of Damonza Byrd and Mike Florio. On team strength, the field's 2025 win-total calls missed worst on Kansas City, off by 6.4 wins on average across 9 calls, with Washington (off by 5.2 across 6 calls) and New England and Seattle (each off by 5 wins) close behind. On awards, pundits mostly got 2025 MVP right, with 24 of 68 ballots naming eventual winner Matthew Stafford, while Offensive Rookie of the Year was scattered: Tetairoa McMillan won it despite only 5 of 29 ballots picking him. The full field is on the leaderboard.