Michigan's Senate Field Goes 4x in a Month, and Rogers Just Picked Up a Fourth Backer | MissedTakes Election Brief
Drafted by a language model from MissedTakes' graded data, then reviewed and approved by Ben Garves before publishing. How our posts are made
Who's moved on Michigan's Senate race?
Twenty pundits have now called Michigan's Senate race, up from just five callers four weeks ago, and Abdul El-Sayed still leads Mike Rogers 14 calls to 6. Both of Michigan's forecasters back El-Sayed, while talkers split 12-6 for him. The market and the polls tell a tighter story than the field does: Polymarket prices El-Sayed at 70 cents to Rogers' 30, and VoteHub's four-poll average (through Oct. 18) has El-Sayed up just 47.3% to 44.3%, a 3-point edge.
The newest call came from Steve Deace on Oct. 21, picking Rogers. Deace carries a graded record of 54.1% accuracy and a 2.2 MissedTakes Score across 70 graded calls, a mixed mark that leaves him closer to a coin flip than a sharp read. He joins Ben Shapiro (63.9% accuracy, 25.3 score, 81 graded calls) and Erick-Woods Erickson (79.8% accuracy, 45.9 score, 68 graded calls) on the Rogers side. On the other side, Buck Sexton switched to El-Sayed on Oct. 6, as we've reported; he carries a 59.9% accuracy and an 11 score from 25 graded calls.
Who stands alone on Alaska and New Hampshire?
Two pundits are the only ones holding their specific pick in Alaska, and a third is alone in New Hampshire. Ryan Girdusky is the only caller on Dan S. Sullivan in Alaska, against seven callers favoring Mary Peltola or a generic Republican; his graded record stands at 63.6% accuracy and a 28.2 score, though with only 16 graded calls it's still a provisional read. Ben Shapiro is the lone caller on a generic Republican in the same race, against seven others, with his 81-call record above.
In New Hampshire, Buck Sexton is the only caller on John E. Sununu, against six callers elsewhere in the race, one of them Chuck Todd, who picked Chris Pappas on Oct. 21. Sexton's graded record (59.9% accuracy, 11 score, 25 graded calls) sits near the middle of the pack.
Who's calling the most races this cycle?
Chuck Todd has made more calls than anyone this cycle, 93 in total and 17 in the past week alone, more than five times the next-most-active pundit's weekly pace. He has no graded record yet from a prior cycle. Here's how the top five by call volume compare:
| Pundit | Calls this cycle | Calls this week | Graded record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chuck Todd | 93 | 17 | none yet |
| Kyle Kondik | 69 | 0 | 100% accuracy, 0 score (1 graded call) |
| G. Elliott Morris | 44 | 1 | none yet |
| Ryan Girdusky | 30 | 7 | 63.6% accuracy, 28.2 score (16 graded) |
| Erick-Woods Erickson | 25 | 6 | 79.8% accuracy, 45.9 score (68 graded) |
Todd's 17 calls this week alone included fresh picks on Ohio's governor race (Amy Acton), Wyoming's Senate and House races (Cynthia Lummis and Chuck Gray), and Massachusetts' governor race (Maura Healey), all on Oct. 22.
On the record
We're tracking 522 calls from 86 pundits this cycle, none yet graded with 12 days left before Election Day. The full picture is on the election leaderboard and the US Elections hub.