South Carolina's Senate Field Is Unanimous for Graham, While the Senate Control Fight Splits Forecasters From Talkers | MissedTakes Election Brief
Drafted by a language model from MissedTakes' graded data, then reviewed and approved by Ben Garves before publishing. How our posts are made
Every pundit we've tracked on South Carolina's Senate race has called it for Republican Darline Graham, 11 of 11, forecasters and talkers alike. Meanwhile the bigger question of which party runs the Senate has split the field in two: the three forecasters who've weighed in lean Democratic, while the 19 talkers lean Republican.
Why is South Carolina's Senate field unanimous for Graham?
All 11 pundits calling South Carolina, four forecasters and seven talkers, have landed on Darline Graham over Democrat Annie Andrews. Tom Bevan made the first call on September 28, a pundit whose last-cycle record reads 97.6% accuracy across 18 graded calls, a small but strong sample. Forecaster Geoffrey Skelley followed on October 8 with "lean Republican," carrying a still-provisional 72.9% accuracy on 8 graded calls. Chuck Todd has called the race three separate times without changing sides: "lean incumbent" and "basically lean incumbent" on October 7, then "slightly favored" on October 21; Todd has no graded record with us yet. The most recent call, from Logan Phillips on October 20, comes from a pundit whose early-cycle record is thin, 31% accuracy across 12 graded calls, one of the weaker samples on the board.
Polymarket prices Andrews at just 19 cents as of October 21, implying Graham near 81, in line with the unanimous field. We don't carry a VoteHub polling average for this race the way we do for Michigan, Texas or Georgia, so there's no outside polling check to read the pundits against here.
Where does the field actually disagree on Senate control?
On the national question of which party takes the Senate, 22 pundits split 12 Republican to 10 Democratic, but forecasters and talkers are pulling in opposite directions rather than converging. Four weeks ago the field held just 3 callers, 2 Republican and 1 Democratic; it has since grown sevenfold without settling.
| Group | Republican | Democratic |
|---|---|---|
| Forecasters (3) | 1 | 2 |
| Talkers (19) | 11 | 8 |
Erick-Woods Erickson has picked Republican control repeatedly since September 23, telling his audience on October 8 to expect "a 50-50 Senate with JD Vance as the tiebreaker." His record from last cycle backs the confidence: 79.8% accuracy across 68 graded calls, a limited but sizable sample. Chuck Todd, by contrast, told listeners on October 21, "I'm still pretty bullish on Democratic chances to take control of the Senate," a talker going against his own group's lean, and doing so with no graded record of his own yet. Logan Phillips put Democratic control at "about a 70% chance" on October 20, the same day as his South Carolina call, from that 31%-accuracy sample.
Who's making the most calls as Election Day nears?
Chuck Todd leads the field with 88 calls this cycle, 12 of them in the last week alone, more than Kyle Kondik's next-highest 69. Erickson added 5 calls this week too, all consistent with positions he's held since September, backed by that 79.8%-accuracy record.
On the record
The 2026 cycle holds 510 calls from 86 pundits across these races, the two chambers and the national House vote, with 55 of them logged in the past week and 23 since our last brief on October 19. None are graded yet, with Election Day 13 days off. See every pick on the election leaderboard or browse the US Elections hub.