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Writes at Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Is Logan Phillips accurate? Across 4 graded calls in 2 articles, Logan Phillips scores 37.5% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 25, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.
“Pennsylvania is like a fifty to fifty state for the presidentially my model, it's eighty percent for the Senate... So he's an underdog. He's done a good job against Casey”
“I don't think she's right that he's gonna win it. But before I viewed it as a safe race, Mount model had it a two percent chance for them... Now I have it up to around twenty or you know, twenty five.”
“There's still a pathway for it to happen, but you know, they're underdogs. Two and three shots you hold onto the Senate maybe a touch more.”
“And if she wins North Carolina and Nevada, which you know, I still think she's modestly favorite Nevado.”