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Tom Bevan

Is Tom Bevan accurate? Across 4 graded calls in 4 articles, Tom Bevan scores 100% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 51, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.

100%

Accuracy

How often they were right.

MissedTakes Score

Versus a naive guess. 0 means no better.

Graded calls

across 4 articles. 8 more not yet settled.

Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.

100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.

Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.

Graded calls · 4

Bevan said that despite the shock Des Moines Register poll showing Harris ahead in Iowa, he did not believe she would actually carry the state, implying Trump wins there.Nov 5, 2024
- “Now is Kamala Harris gonna win Iowa? I would argue probably not.”
  Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
  How this was scored
  right:
  yes
  race:
  2024-president-ia
  election year:
  2024
  skill:
  0
  topic:
  elections
  held going in by:
  Republican
  result from:
  fec-2024-president
  who won:
  Donald Trump
  accuracy:
  100
  baseline:
  100
  race name:

We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong — a misattributed quote, a claim we misread, a grade you disagree with — tell us and we will look at it.

2024 U.S. presidential election in Iowa

decided in the:

general

they said:

Donald Trump

days before the vote when called:

difficulty:

the winner's party:

Republican

the naive guess:

the party holding the seat keeps it

Election Day:

2024-11-05

the result is:

certified

the party they named:

Republican

Think this grade is wrong?

Discussing Nebraska's split electoral votes, Bevan said Trump would carry Nebraska statewide and also win the non-Omaha congressional district, giving him three of the state's four electoral votes, while treating the Omaha-area district as Harris's for the taking.Oct 31, 2024

“Trump's gonna get, I think, three of the four electoral votes there because he'll win the state overall. So he gets two, and he's gonna win the other congressional district.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-ne
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Nebraska
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
4
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this grade is wrong?

Bevan argued the race had shifted toward Trump nationally and in the battlegrounds, and said he believed Trump held a slight edge in the presidential contest.Oct 23, 2024

“And it might work, by the way. I'm not I'm I'm not suggesting that that... I think Trump has probably got a slight edge right now.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
I think Trump has probably got a slight edge right now
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this grade is wrong?

Bevan argued Democrats face an uphill Senate map, saying flatly that they will lose the West Virginia Senate seat, which leaves them needing to pick off a Republican-held seat.Oct 22, 2024

“I think it's an uphill battle for Democrats to... In the senate right now. They're gonna lose West Virginia.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-wv
election year:
2024
skill:
102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Independent
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Jim Justice
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in West Virginia
decided in the:
general
they said:
Jim Justice
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this grade is wrong?