Ben Shapiro

Writes at The Ben Shapiro Show

Is Ben Shapiro accurate? Across 30 graded calls in 8 articles, Ben Shapiro scores 86.54% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 81.65, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.

86.54%

Accuracy

How often they were right.

81.65

MissedTakes Score

Versus a naive guess. 0 means no better.

Graded calls

across 8 articles.

Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.

100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.

Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.

Form

Rolling accuracy over their last fifteen graded calls, in the order the claims were made. The dashed line is their career average — the question this answers is whether the number above is who they are or who they were.

earliest callscareer avg 93 ┄latest form: 87

Graded calls · 30

On election day 2024 Shapiro gave Trump a slight edge nationally and laid out a map in which Trump sweeps the Sun Belt battlegrounds (North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada) and all three Rust Belt states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), while Virginia stays blue. He also called Senate races for Eric Hovde in Wisconsin, Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania, Bernie Moreno over Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and Jim Justice in West Virginia.13 graded calls · Nov 5, 2024
- “I think Moreno takes that seat. I think Sherrod Brown goes home.”
  Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
  How this was scored
  right:
  yes
  race:
  2024-senate-oh
  election year:
  2024
  skill:
  100
  topic:
  elections
  held going in by:
  Democratic
  result from:
  wikipedia-2024-senate
  who won:
  Bernard F. Moreno

Hosting a pre-election special with Republican Senate candidates, Shapiro predicted Republicans would pick up West Virginia with Jim Justice, and called Dave McCormick, Tim Sheehy and Bernie Moreno the next senators from Pennsylvania, Montana and Ohio respectively.4 graded calls · Nov 2, 2024

“Presumably, they're gonna pick up the seat in West Virginia. ... considering Jim Justice is very likely to take the West Virginia Senate seat.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-wv
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Independent
in their words:
very likely
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Jim Justice
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in West Virginia
decided in the:
general
they said:
Jim Justice
days before the vote when called:
2
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this grade is wrong?
“That is Dave McCormack, the next senator from Pennsylvania.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-pa
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Dave McCormick
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Dave McCormick
days before the vote when called:
2
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
“Plus, Tim Sheehy is going to make an amazing senator from the state of Montana.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-mt
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Tim Sheehy
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana
decided in the:
general
they said:
Tim Sheehy
days before the vote when called:
2
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
“Well, Bernie Moreno, obviously, big fan of what you're doing in the state of Ohio. You're the next senator from Ohio.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-oh
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Bernard F. Moreno
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Ohio
decided in the:
general
they said:
Bernard F. Moreno
days before the vote when called:
2
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:

Shapiro says his gut tells him Trump wins the presidency, and lays out what he calls the most likely scenario: Trump sweeps the Sun Belt states of North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, with a good chance of also taking Nevada.5 graded calls · Nov 1, 2024

“The most likely scenario right now is that he wins all of the so called Sun Belt states, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-az
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
The most likely scenario right now
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this grade is wrong?
“The most likely scenario right now is that he wins all of the so called Sun Belt states, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-nc
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
The most likely scenario right now
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in North Carolina
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
3
“And people ask me all the time, who do I think is gonna win? Listen, my gut says that Donald Trump is gonna win.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
“The most likely scenario right now is that he wins all of the so called Sun Belt states, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-ga
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
The most likely scenario right now
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Georgia
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
3
“There's a good shot that he picks up Nevada as well, and that takes him to two sixty eight.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-nv
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
There's a good shot that he picks up Nevada
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:

Shapiro says his gut tells him Trump wins the presidency, and that Trump's momentum should carry Georgia and Arizona for him, while the race ultimately turns on the blue wall states.3 graded calls · Oct 31, 2024

“it looks like Trump has enough momentum in Georgia and Arizona that he likely carries it over the finish line in those particular states”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-az
election year:
2024
skill:
101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
likely carries it over the finish line
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
4
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this grade is wrong?
“And, like, I can have a gut feeling. My gut is that Trump wins, but my gut doesn't mean anything.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
4
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
“it looks like Trump has enough momentum in Georgia and Arizona that he likely carries it over the finish line in those particular states”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-ga
election year:
2024
skill:
101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
likely carries it over the finish line
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Georgia
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
4