Texans 34, Jaguars 31: Most of the Field Took Jacksonville, Two Pundits Called the Margin Exactly
Drafted by a language model from MissedTakes' graded data, then reviewed and approved by Ben Garves before publishing. How our posts are made
How did the pundits split on Texans-Jaguars?
Of the 28 pundits whose Week 6 calls on this game we graded, 17 took the Jaguars to beat Houston at home and 11 took the Texans on the road. Jacksonville lost, 34-31, so the majority sided with the loser. The game settled 33 individual calls in all, since some pundits filed more than one, and the average score across them came out to 52 out of 100.
Which calls got the margin exactly right?
Two pundits landed on the Texans winning by precisely the margin Houston delivered. John Breech of CBS Sports wrote on October 13: "PICK: Texans 20-17 over Jaguars." Jordan Dajani, also of CBS Sports, published the same idea across three separate Week 6 picks columns between October 15 and 16: "Texans 21-18 over Jaguars." Both predicted a three-point Houston win; Houston won by three. Each call is graded with a skill value of 98.29, reflecting that picking the road team to win outright, against a field leaning the other way, is worth far more than another vote for the home side.
Beyond the score calls, nine pundits made a flat winner pick on the Texans and all nine were credited with the maximum skill value of 172 for that call, including Chris Broussard ("Texans over the Jags. The Jags been dying to give away a game"), John Middlekauff ("I kind of like Houston in that spot"), and Albert Breer. All three published their picks on October 14-16, siding with the team that beat Jacksonville in London.
Here's how the seven pundits who posted a full score prediction compared on margin:
| Pundit | Call | Jaguars margin | Off by |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Breech | Texans 20-17 | -3 | 0 |
| Jordan Dajani | Texans 21-18 | -3 | 0 |
| Chris Simms | Jaguars 20-16 | +4 | 7 |
| Jared Dubin | Jaguars 24-20 | +4 | 7 |
| Pete Prisco | Jaguars 24-20 | +4 | 7 |
| Tyler Sullivan | Jaguars 28-24 | +4 | 7 |
| Shanna McCarriston | Jaguars 30-13 | +17 | 20 |
Which pundits missed the Jaguars win?
Seventeen pundits took Jacksonville outright and all seventeen were wrong, each scoring zero on that call. Connor Rogers talked himself into it live: "I like Jacksonville just as the better team... but I am gonna take Jacksonville," on October 16. Carter Bahns wrote on October 8 that the Jaguars "should have a logistical advantage over the Eagles and Texans, and they are simply the better team in both matchups, too." Richard Sherman said on October 14, "I don't see the Jacksonville Jaguars losing this game. I got Jacksonville in this one." The earliest miss on record came from TJ Jefferson, who called "Jags Jags back to back" all the way back on May 13. On the score-prediction side, Chris Simms, Jared Dubin and Pete Prisco all had Jacksonville winning by four, missing the eventual margin by 7 points, while Tyler Sullivan's Jaguars-by-four call missed by the same amount. Shanna McCarriston's call for a 30-13 Jacksonville win was the widest miss on the board, 20 points off the final margin.
Did this interrupt anyone's streak?
Breech's score-prediction average across 107 graded calls this season sits at an accuracy of 53.34 and a skill value of just 4.73, so his Texans-by-3 call, worth 98.29, ranks among his best of the year in that category rather than typical form. Dajani's track record shows the same pattern: across 70 graded score predictions his average skill is 19.66, well below the 98.29 he banked here, and he made this specific call in three different published pieces. McCarriston's miss lands differently. Her score predictions carry an average skill of 21.52 across just four graded calls this season, a small enough sample that one bad number swings it hard, and this one came in at -45.05, worse than simply guessing the home team would win by its typical margin.
What does the Texans' win change for the rest of the season?
Jacksonville's loss complicates a division-winner case a lot of pundits had already filed. Rich Eisen said on September 9 that the Jaguars were "without question the class of their division... they're gonna repeat as the AFC South. No doubt." Dan Graziano wrote on October 10 that a repeat "is looking extremely possible right now." On the Texans' side, preseason win-total calls from John Breech (11-6), Nick Wright (12-5) and Moe Moton (13-4) all assumed a stronger start than Houston actually had, and a result like this London win does something to close that gap, even if it is just one result against a long season. For the full picture on both clubs, see the Jaguars and Texans team pages, and check the pundit leaderboard for how this week moved the overall standings.