Washington Commanders to win the division
“a better chance to win the NFC East over Philadelphia”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
- skill:
- −200
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- WAS
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
Think this grade is wrong?
“you have them in your overall DVOA projections for the year. The Eagles as the seventh best team in the NFL, So not that much different than where Washington is at five... the Panthers are dead last... You have the Saints projected to be like the thirtieth best team in the league.”
Miss · 30Scored 30a naive guess scored 60-60 skill
How this was scored
- skill:
- −60
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 30
- baseline:
- 60
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Think this grade is wrong?
Jacksonville Jaguars to win the division
“You have the Jaguars projected to win the division. It's only by you know, half a game in your projections”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
- skill:
- 200
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- yes
Think this grade is wrong?
San Francisco 49ers to finish with 11.2 wins
“You have the forty nine Ers at projected for eleven point two wins, which is the most in the NFC, it's the third most in the NFL.”
Hit · 84Scored 84a naive guess scored 5+158 skill
How this was scored
- team:
- SF
- naive:
- 7.25
- skill:
- 158
- what happened:
- 12
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 84
- baseline:
- 5
- they said:
- 11.2
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Think this grade is wrong?
Tre Harris to be 1st on the depth chart
“They're going to depend on a second round rookie, probably to start Trey Harris now that Mike Williams is retired”
Close · 75Scored 75a naive guess scored 83.33-16.67 skill
How this was scored
- club:
- LAC
- skill:
- −16.67
- player:
- Tre Harris
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 75
- baseline:
- 83.33
- position:
- WR
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- receptions
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Think this grade is wrong?
Dallas Cowboys to finish with 7.7 wins
“You have both the Steelers and the Cowboys as losing teams projected for seven point seven wins each.”
Hit · 86Scored 86a naive guess scored 85+2 skill
How this was scored
- team:
- DAL
- naive:
- 7.75
- skill:
- 2
- what happened:
- 7
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 86
- baseline:
- 85
- they said:
- 7.7
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Think this grade is wrong?
Brock Bowers to be 1st on the depth chart
“Jacoby Myers is a night slot receiver, but he's no one idea of a number one. But the number one is really Bowers.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
- club:
- LV
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Brock Bowers
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- TE
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- receptions
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Think this grade is wrong?
Pittsburgh Steelers to finish with 7.7 wins
“You have both the Steelers and the Cowboys as losing teams projected for seven point seven wins each.”
Close · 54Scored 54a naive guess scored 85-62 skill
How this was scored
- team:
- PIT
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- −62
- what happened:
- 10
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 54
- baseline:
- 85
- they said:
- 7.7
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Think this grade is wrong?
Carolina Panthers to finish with 5.5 wins
“the Panthers are dead last, like five and a half wins, under ten percent chance to make the playoffs”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 75-50 skill
How this was scored
- team:
- CAR
- naive:
- 6.75
- skill:
- −50
- what happened:
- 8
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 75
- they said:
- 5.5
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Think this grade is wrong?
Las Vegas Raiders to finish with 8.3 wins
“we've got the Raiders with your projections getting eight point three wins... thirty eight point six percent chance of making the playoffs”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 35-70 skill
How this was scored
- team:
- LV
- naive:
- 6.25
- skill:
- −70
- what happened:
- 3
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 35
- they said:
- 8.3
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Think this grade is wrong?
Jacksonville Jaguars to finish with 9 wins
“you have the Jaguars at nine wins. You have them at a fifty four point seven percent chance to make the playoffs.”
Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 0+40 skill
How this was scored
- team:
- JAX
- naive:
- 6.25
- skill:
- 40
- what happened:
- 13
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 20
- baseline:
- 0
- they said:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Think this grade is wrong?
San Francisco 49ers to win the division
“Let's say you combine that with the really easy schedule, you have a division champion.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- SF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- LAR
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
Think this grade is wrong?
Washington Commanders to finish with 10.6 wins
“You have the Commanders at ten point six wins. That's about a win ahead of the Eagles.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
- team:
- WAS
- naive:
- 10.25
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 5
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- they said:
- 10.6
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Think this grade is wrong?